Markets

Daily Market Wire 8 December 2023

Lachstock Consulting, December 8, 2023

Markets and the Australian dollar firmed in overnight trading.

  • Chicago March 2024 wheat up 8.75c/bu to US642.25c/bu;
  • Kansas March 2024 wheat up 11.5c/bu to 667.5c/bu;
  • Minneapolis March 2024 wheat up 6.75c/bu to 737.25c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March 2024 unchanged at  €232/t;
  • Black Sea wheat futures has not quoted since 11 August;
  • Corn March 2024 up 3.75c/bu to 488c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 up 14.25c/bu to 1344.25c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 up C$15.10/t to C$682.80/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 up €5/t to €443/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat up A$1/t to $396/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley unchanged at A$330/t;
  • AUD dollar up 51 points to  US$0.6602.

International

Chicago wheat is now just over US82 cents per bushel higher than the lows printed in late Nov as the massive short contends with the increased export pace from the US. It is no coincidence that the Russian export program has slowed significantly over the same period, further highlighting how big of an influence Russia is having on global values. From an Asian consumer perspective, the impact of the constricted Russia program has not been as severe, with Argentina stepping in with cheap wheat as its local market pushes hard to export before the new government does anything to the current export tax. Despite this flush of liquidity, the major exporters stocks-to-use ratio will be the tightest seen since 2007-08.

Romania continues to invest in improving the port of Constanta to increase exporting capacity.

Australia

Barley values in Western Australia moved a little higher to A$360/t free in store Kwinana; the $5/t price rise over the past 48 hours has more to do with some trade short covering than additional new Chinese export demand. Higher international bulk freight rates and cheaper Argentina offers have made Aussie less competitive in the very short term.

Up-country east coast values were slightly firmer yesterday for wheat with protein of 10.5pc or more. The continued theme of a dominant mid to low-pro harvest is set to continue through Victoria, and those with and consumption and trade shorts are actively chasing tonnes.

ASW has also been resilient in face of a heavy balance sheet with exports and domestics alike happy to stand there and own the grain.

Canola was slightly firmer in good rail-executing sites yesterday, but overall still looks lacklustre, and grower selling has slowed to a trickle for now.

Heatwaves, rain and thunderstorms are forecast for parts of southern Australia this weekend, where harvest is ongoing.

 

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