International

The weather market kicked off by driving soybeans, and now the market is increasingly concerned about safrinha corn. Southern Brazil into northern Argentina is only expected to receive between 30-40 per cent of normal rainfall for the next two weeks, significant given they would normally see 80-100 millimetres fall over this period. Additionally, the heat won’t give up in Argentina, with maximum temperatures 3-4 degrees Celsius above normal.

Rio Grande do Sul accounts for 16-18pc of Brazil’s soybean harvest, and harvest reports will be watch closely as this state has experienced some of the more extreme weather.

It seems every disappointing weather forecast is met with an export sales flash; US soybeans flashed a sale of 507,000t split between old and new crop.

USDA’s monthly WASDE report is due out on Wednesday. Given the US balance sheets have locked the production side, the export pull will be the focus; it seems the speculators are comfortable with the downside risk as they added plenty of length in both corn and soybeans.

Australia

Local markets started the week with a firmer tone. Wheat values were relatively unchanged in Western Australia, with ASW1 still finding demand at A$330 free in store, while in South Australia, quality wheat and SFW continue to find a bid with H2 in Adelaide zone bid at $410/t.

Barley markets remain supported through Victoria and SA.  With demand hard to draw out, values remained unchanged.

Canola was steady with bids also largely unchanged.  Strength through offshore soybean and canola markets will continue to provide support for local Aussie prices and strong export pace for February and March.

A rain event of 10-25mm is forecast for the WA Wheatbelt, and would provide great relief for farmers given the devastating bushfires still burning in some districts.