French wheat and Matif rapeseed gained. Brent crude rallied another 3pc.
- Chicago wheat July 2023 contract up US0.25 cents per bushel to 767c/bu;
- Kansas wheat July 2023 contract up 5c/bu at 863.25c/bu;
- Minneapolis wheat May 2023 contract down 0.5c/bu to 910.25c/bu;
- MATIF wheat May 2023 contract up €4.50/t to €290.50/t;
- Black Sea wheat March 2023 contract unchanged at US$305/t;
- Corn May 2023 contract down 4.75c/bu to 673c/bu;
- Soybeans May 2023 contract down 4.25c/bu to 1510.25c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola May 2023 contract down C$0.60/t to $830.20/t;
- MATIF rapeseed May 2023 contract up €3.75/t to €553.50/t;
- ASX Mar 2023 wheat contract up A$3.50/t to $385.50/t;
- ASX Mar 2023 barley contract down A$1.10/t to $328.90/t;
- AUD dollar gained 1pc to US$0.696.
The death toll from the earthquake in Turkey and Syria has risen to over 7000 with the window for finding survivors beginning to narrow. Rescue workers were digging through debris in freezing conditions. The World Health Organization said the death toll was expected to increase by the thousands. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a three-month state of emergency in Turkey’s 10 affected provinces. “We are face to face with one of the biggest disasters ever for our region,” he said in a nationally televised address. The Transport Ministry reports that damage caused by the earthquake has stopped operations at the port of Iskenderun. All other ports remain operational.
Black Sea market analyst SovEcon estimated Russia’s January wheat exports at 3.8Mt, up 90pc compared to January last year but marginally lower than the January record of 3.9Mt. Infrastructure remained the biggest bottleneck. Strong shipments are expected to continue in February although storms are impacting loading.
South American crop consultant Michael Cordonnier has cut his Argentine soybean crop forecast by 1Mt to 38Mt and noted “the estimate could easily move lower with an extended period of hot and dry weather.” Dr Cordonnier left his Argentine corn crop forecast at 44Mt but warned “any extended period of hot and dry weather going forward would result in a lower corn estimate.” He kept his Brazilian crop estimates at 151Mt for soybeans and 125Mt for corn.
European Commission data show EU 2022-23 soft wheat exports were just over 19Mt by 5 Feb, compared with 17.8Mt last year. Leading destinations included Morocco, Algeria and Egypt. EU barley exports were 3.16Mt, compared with 5.28Mt a year earlier and corn imports were 16.7Mt compared to 9.87Mt the year before.
Rosario Grains Exchange reported as at 3 Feb, crop conditions of Argentina’s late-sown corn in the core growing regions improved from 35pc bad/average to 15pc bad/average, owing to beneficial rains. However, further rains were required to improve production prospects. Soybean conditions pegged at 45pc bad/average down from 65pc. However, rainfall was deemed to have arrived too late to significantly improve yield prospects.
Canadian stocks for every field crop were up at the end of December 2022 compared to the same period in 2021. StatsCan said higher total supplies reflected higher production in 2022, as growing conditions on Canada’s prairies recovered after one of the driest years on record.
South Korea’s MFG has reportedly purchased 138,000t corn, including 70,000t from South America and 68,000t optional-origin, at $340/t C&F for May shipment.
Jordan made no purchase in their tender for 120,000t milling wheat.
Local markets continued the week on their merry way. Bids on grower boards were largely unchanged with canola again a few bucks stronger. Liquidity continued to trickle out into the market however we do see some prompt demand pop up here and there where buyers have to step up.
The sorghum outlook is very mixed with early sown crops faring better than later sown crops in some areas due the hot and relatively dry summer. Crops that were able to tap into deeper soil moisture are likely to yield well but those that haven’t are struggling. Although the outlook is generally very positive for a big crop, yields will be very mixed depending on when the crop went in. Prices are holding well at $395-400/t delivered Downs but as the bulk of the crop starts to come off in March we may see prices ease.
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