Grain markets mixed overnight; Monday’s settlements as follows.
- Chicago wheat down 2.5 cents per bushel to 465.25c;
- Kansas wheat up 0.25c to 431.5c;
- MATIF wheat up €0.25 per tonne to €189.5;
- Minneapolis wheat up 1.5c to 524c;
- Corn down 2.5c to 360c previous close was 362.5c;
- Soybeans down 0.25c to 898.75c;
- Winnipeg canola down C$2.90/t to $454.5,
- MATIF rapeseed down €0.75 to €360.75.
- WTI crude oil up US$1.32 per barrel to $64.40;
- Dow Jones down 83.97 points to 26,341.02;
- AUD up to .7120c,
- EUR up to $1.126;
- CAD up to $1.330.
Market news
Quiet trading before tomorrow’s USDA report – Chicago wheat closed -4¢ to 465 1/4, KC -1 to 431.5, Minny +1.5¢ to 524, and Matif up a quarter of a euro to 189.5€. Corn gave up 2 3/4¢ to 360 flat and beans were unchanged at 898 3/4 on close. Canola drifted back slightly lower, off $2.9 on Winnipeg to $454.5 and -3/4€ Matif to 360 3/4. Crude oil has continued its rally up to $64.4 WTI (+$1.37/barrel) and $71.1 Brent (+75¢) even as comments out of Russia suggest that they want to increase production. The DOW gave up 84 points and the US dollar is slightly weaker, with the AUD up to 71.2¢, the CAD $1.330, and the EUR $1.126. There’s nothing new to be heard on the US/China trade war, and British and EU politicians are still scrambling to sort out the details on Brexit.
There’s been yet another “new” outbreak of African Swing Fever in China – this time in NW China. Questions remain about the impact on total feed demand (with the ongoing expansion of poultry production taking some of the reduced pork demand). Meanwhile, US bean inspections this week were about as expected (888,000t, vs ideas of 600-900) with some 6 panamaxes to China included in that figure (on earlier sales). Corn was also about as expected (1.0 MMT, vs ideas somewhere over 1) and wheat at 539,000t (vs 400-600 expected). There was little unexpected in the wheat figures, though Lachstock does note that one of the recent SRW sales to GASC loaded and the outstanding Algerian durum sale shipped.
Crop notes
Crop progress figures out of the USDA this morning pegged corn planting at 2% complete (at average levels and unchanged from last year – though Lachstock notes that at this stage there is rarely any field work underway in the corn belt where weather risks remain) and spring wheat 1% (vs 2% last year, 5% average). They also pegged winter wheat conditions as 60% good/excellent (up from 56% last week). Meanwhile, Egypt will officially begin their local harvest procurement next week – with the ministry claiming that they intend to purchase some 3.6 MMT from local farmers (up from around 3 MMT last year). They also claim that they intend to build a 5-6 month strategic grain reserve (vs current ~3 month) – no word on how they will finance that.
WASDE
A reminder that late tonight (mid-day US Tuesday) will be the USDA’s next WASDE report. This is normally a quiet report, as the USDA will not publish their new crop (19/20) until the May WASDE. Estimates are mostly all for heavier corn and wheat carry outs (especially after the stocks report in corn), and mostly unchanged bean figures.
Source: Lachstock Consulting
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