Markets

Daily Market Wire 9 February 2024

Lachstock Consulting, February 9, 2024

Oilseeds firmed. Wheat markets eased between about 2pc and 3pc. Brent crude rallied 3pc.

  • Chicago March 2024 wheat down US13.5c/bu to 588.5c/bu;
  • Kansas March 2024 wheat down 17.25c/bu to 601c/bu;
  • Minneapolis March 2024 wheat down 12.5c/bu to 683.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March 2024 down €3.75/t to €205.25/t;
  • Black Sea wheat futures has not quoted since 11 August 2023;
  • Corn May 2024 down 1.5c/bu to 445c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 up 2.25c/bu to 1199.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 up C$5/t to C$604.40/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 up €1.75/t to €412.50/t ;
  • ASX March 2024 wheat down A$10/t to $356/t;
  • ASX March 2024 barley unchanged at A$298.50/t;
  • AUD dollar down 28 points to US$0.6492

International

Modest gains were seen across both soybean and corn markets overnight. The USDA dampened the mood on soy after Conab earlier in the day slashed its Brazil soy production to sub 150Mt (down 5.8Mt). Where does that leave us? Well, many of the trade estimates are now circa 150Mt (Conab 149.4Mt, StoneX 150.35) and the USDA released only a 1Mt reduction to 156Mt. On the corn front, the USDA was more aggressive in its assessment on the Brazil all-corn production estimate cutting it by 3Mt to 124Mt. It is early days on the Brazil corn production, the Safrinha crop is only 20pc planted and it represents some 70pc of the country’s total corn production. 

Wheat was lower on news of a slightly looser US balance sheet after the market was expecting a slight tightening. Softer Russian and French physical values did little to assist the market. 

StatsCan’s report came in as expected on wheat, as at December 31 estimate shows all wheat stocks at 20.7Mt (compared to 23.04Mt at the end of 2022). Canola stocks estimate came in at 13Mt (compared to 12.68Mt a year ago). 

Japan bought 136,000t of milling wheat for April shipment in their weekly tender, being 57kt of ASW milling wheat from Australia, 53kt from US and 26kt Canadian. 

Both the US Fed and European Central Bank continue to push back any expectations of rapid rate cuts, according to the CME the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in March is now 16.5pc and this is compared to 36.5pc only a week ago. 

Oil prices rose overnight posting over 3pc gains after Israel rejected a ceasefire offer from Hamas saying that the terms were unacceptable, raising concerns of a broadening conflict in the Middle East. A stronger than expected US stock draw down data also provided some support.

Australia

Sorghum values stabilise as the summer harvest draw closer. There is still a distinct lack of bulk exporter presence in the market, but most believe this is still to come. Possibly it may have something to do with the Chinese New Year celebrations. The Downs was bid A$350/t yesterday, whist track stays illiquid at $355/t. Grower sellers have slowed their pace considerably as attention is turned to harvest weather risk. 

Ground hog day in southern markets. The grind for the last four weeks continues with cereal values mostly unchanged again. Melbourne ASW trading at $365/t full range. With the grower still somewhat reluctant to step in with sales. Given the size of the crop it seems liquidity is not an issue in Vic. 

A relatively dry weekend on the cards for most of Australia with some falls of less than 10mm expected in Qld and NNSW cropping areas. Early next week the forecast is calling for 10-25mm in most cropping areas in eastern Australia, nothing for WA and SA.

 

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