Markets

Daily Market Wire 9 May 2022

Lachstock Consulting, May 9, 2022

Oilseeds markets and corn closed 1-2pc lower. Wheat market settlements were little changed from previous, though the US winter wheats traded about 6pc high/low range on Friday. The Australian dollar fell 2 ½ pc on Friday.

  • Chicago wheat July contract up US2 cents per bushel to 1108.5c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat July contract down 6.5c/bu to 1170.5c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat July down 1c/bu to 1208.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat September contract down €0.50/t to €397.50/t;
  • Black Sea wheat July contract up $1.50/t to $384.25/t;
  • Corn July contract down 12.75/bu to 784.75c/bu;
  • Soybeans July contract down 25c/bu to 1622c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract down C$9.30/t to $1081.70/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract down €11/t to €828.25/t;
  • ASX July 2022 wheat contract up A$7 to $435/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract up $3/t to $437/t;
  • AUD dollar weaker at US$0.707 down 2 ½ pc

International

“Behind the slaughter house door.” If you were to look just at the market closing prices you would be forgiven for thinking it was a quiet session to finish the week. The reality was quite different. Big trading ranges throughout the session underlined market uncertainty and volatility. The line-up of fundamentals that could easily go one way or the other seems to get longer every day which makes this week a perfect time for USDA to publish a WASDE report. We will have that report to hand Friday morning.

That Malaysian palm oil inventories continue to grow is interesting given Indonesia’s export ban.

Safrinha corn continues to battle with low moisture. US corn futures markets appear to ignore the terrible conditions in Brazil and the slow planting pace in the US and would apparently pre-empt a large yield number in the USDA balances.

Excessively wet conditions in the US Hard Red Spring wheat areas may fuel ‘prevent plant’ declarations there. It will likely not be reflected in this week’s USDA report but is one to watch.

Russian wheat conditions are close to perfect and should lead to export projections in the vicinity 34 million tonnes, ignoring the sanctions/shipping issues/war fall out. It is a big crop.

Australia

Wheat track market firmed versus the delivered market late last week. Bid prices rallied $20/t during the course of the week.

The bumper cotton harvest underway in NSW and QLD is adding pressure to already tight logistics because demand for trucks is increasing. Export demand for wheat, barley and sorghum remains very strong and is pushing prices to season highs. Domestic consumers are having to bid strongly to compete with the export market.

Mostly rain-free weekend conditions saw sowing of the winter crop powering ahead. Picking cotton and harvesting sorghum and mungbeans are proceeding at the same time as planting winter crop. The drier weekend allowed some soggy paddocks to dry out in central NSW and southern Victoria but those conditions will not remain for long, particularly in NSW where the coming week is forecast wet. Southern Queensland is forecast to receive 50-100mm ran and Central Queensland up to 150 mm. Some good falls are predicted for WA. The parts of SA that need rain are forecast to miss out again.

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