Almost all the Mediterranean region of Türkiye is suffering under severe drought conditions. Southeastern Anatolia has been under severe drought declaration since last May. Image: art_mine via Shutterstock

TÜRKIYE cropping in 2025 is under threat as limited rainfall over the past four months threatens to reduce yields when its winter-crop harvest commences late spring. Cereal production contracted also in 2024 after drier-than-normal growing conditions depressed yields.

Turkish State Meteorological Service average October 2024 to January 2025 rainfall registrations were 28.4 percent below the mean from 1991 to 2020, and down 39.6pc compared with year earlier.

Regions suffering severe deficiencies

Precipitation in the Southeastern Anatolia region, in the country’s south-east bordering Syria and Iraq and one of the country’s major winter-cropping areas, has been the hardest hit. Registrations have averaged 96mm for the four months, 36.8pc of the long-term average of 261mm, and 29.4pc of the 326mm that fell in the same period last season. The region’s January rainfall was 4.8mm, just 5.7pc of the 83.7mm long-term mean and 4.3pc of the January 2024 registrations. The entire region of Southeastern Anatolia has been under severe drought declaration since last May.

Central Anatolia, the country’s primary wheat-producing region, accounts for around 31pc of annual production, are fared only marginally better. October to January rainfall averaged 82mm, 53pc of the 155mm long-term average, down 49pc in the same period in 2023-24 when 160mm was recorded. January rainfall across the region averaged 12.7mm, 69.7pc lower than the long-term average of 41.9mm and 75pc lower than the first month of 2023. Drought declarations have gradually engulfed Central Anatolia over the past nine months, with the entire region under severe drought conditions by the end of January.

The Marmara, Aegean and Mediterranean regions also contribute significantly to national grain production. Over the four months to the end of January, rainfall was down 19pc, 16pc, and 29pc respectively compared to the long-term mean, and 41pc, 19pc, and 27pc lower than the previous corresponding period. The January picture revealed decreases of 20pc, 32pc, and 76pc respectively against the long-term average, and 41pc, 28pc, and 76pc of January 2023 observations. Almost all of the Mediterranean region is also suffering under severe drought conditions.

Wheat and barley S&D

Wheat production in Türkiye’s marketing year to May 2025 ended up at 19 million tonnes (Mt) from a harvested area of 7.25 million hectares for an average yield of 2.62t/ha. In 2023-24, production was 2Mt higher at 21Mt from 7.2Mha, with the yield average 11.5pc higher at 2.92t/ha.

Barley output from last year’s harvest was 7Mt, down 1Mt compared to the previous year. Last year’s harvested area was slightly higher at 3.75Mha compared to 3.7Mha in 2023, but the average yield plummeted 13.4pc from 2.16t/ha in 2023 to 1.87t/ha last year.

Cereal stocks remain higher than normal despite the production contraction, with extensive carryover inventories from the 2023-24 marketing year adding significantly to total supply. According to the United States Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service, wheat stocks carried into the 2024-25 marketing year were 5.3Mt, up from 4.6Mt 12 months earlier, and 2.3Mt two years prior.

Domestic wheat consumption is expected to increase slightly from 19.7Mt in 2023/24 to 20Mt in the current season. This growth is seen in the stockfeed sector, rising from 1Mt to 1.3Mt, and is attributed to an increase in the supply of favourably priced feed wheat. The availability of feed wheat has grown in recent months after some of the state’s milling wheat reserves stored in underground bunkers reportedly deteriorated in quality.

Policy impact felt

In early 2023, the Turkish Government announced it would no longer sell wheat at a discount to domestic consumers. However, this policy appears to have grown in flexibility, with the government now selling reserve stocks at a discount to liquidate some of its inventories at varying values depending on out-turn quality and end-use.

Imports of wheat in June to November, the first half of the 2024-25 marketing year, were 40pc lower year on year at just 1.9Mt. This drop is directly attributed to Ankara’s decision to suspend wheat imports under the Inward Processing Regime (IPR) from late June through to mid-October last year.

However, wheat imports are expected to accelerate in the second half of the year and are projected to reach 5Mt by the end of May.  From mid-October, millers have to purchase 85pc of their wheat requirements from the Turkish Grain Board and are permitted to import the remaining 15pc of their wheat needs under the IPR. In line with recent procurement trends, Russia is expected to supply most of Türkiye’s 2024-25 wheat imports.

Exports of flour in wheat equivalent, and wheat, are forecast to retreat from 10Mt in 2023-24 to 7Mt in 2024-25. Most of Türkiye’s flour produced for export markets was processed from imported wheat. The temporary suspension of the IPR last year disrupted traditional flows. By the time it was partially renewed in October, flour exporters had lost critical market share into key markets in Africa and the Middle East, particularly Iraq.

Additionally, when the IPR was suspended, the government authorised the commercial export of milling and durum wheat. This resulted in the export of around 1Mt of durum in the first half of the marketing year, but no milling wheat left the country as prices were uncompetitive. Over the same period, flour exports tumbled by more than 40pc to 1.2Mt, or 1.7Mt wheat equivalent, but the pace is expected to pick up again in the second half.

Like wheat, the barley carry-in has increased significantly in recent years. This season, it was 1.7Mt, up 83pc from 900,000t in 2023-24, which itself was 200pc higher than the 2022-23 carry-in of 300,000t. Barley consumption is forecast to remain unchanged year on year at 8Mt, of which 7.1Mt goes into the stockfeed sector and 900,000t into food, seed and industrial markets, predominantly beer production. While barley imports are minimal at just over 100,000t, exports in 2024-25 are forecast to jump by more than 200pc to 500,000t on the back of Ankara’s strong push to liquidate excess inventories in last-half 2024.