AUSTRALIA has shipped 3.58 million tonnes (Mt) of wheat in total in January-March 2018, made up of 3.02Mt of bulk and 561,094t of containerised wheat, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data.

Market Check head of strategy, Nick Crundall, said these numbers illustrated the fundamental demand for Australian wheat, and were likely to continue into the current month

“If we look at the shipping stem, May is shaping up to be our biggest export month to date this season, which illustrates that global demand for our wheat is strong amidst rallying global FOB prices,” Mr Crundall said.

He said Australia’s weather would determine whether volume shipments continued into June.

“If our cropping belts remain dry, then we will likely destroy export demand by pricing ourselves out of the export grid.

“The other thing to consider is that Black Sea new crop supplies don’t really hit the export market until July.”

He said this, coupled with Russia running low on current-crop stocks in its southern export regions, meant demand for Australian wheat should remain in place in the short term.

Western Australia’s export pace in the season thus far has been slower than some in the market expected, but is believed to be picking up pace.

“South Australia is similar, and the fact that it is now starting to ship grain to Queensland means its stocks need to be monitored closely.

“Victoria’s export pace to date has been quite strong, although considering the price spreads between Victoria and South and Western Australia have widened, we should see a drop-off in export demand as the market focuses on the domestic market.”

ABS export data shows March was the biggest month for bulk and boxed wheat shipments in the year to date.

Indonesia took a very low 81,018t in February, which Mr Crundall said showed the impact of cheaper Black Sea offers.

“However, we’ve seen much better demand for March, coming in at 254,405t.”

“Vietnam was a key destination for containers in March, taking just shy of double what they took in February.”

The Philippines’ March imports of 251,568t of boxed and bulk wheat in total were more than double their February total.

Behind Vietnam, China was Australia’s second-biggest destination for containerised wheat in March, and was the third-biggest bulk market behind Indonesia and The Philippines.

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Table 1: Australian Bureau of Statistics containerised wheat export data for January, February and March 2018.

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Table 2: Australian Bureau of Statistics bulk wheat export data for January, February and March 2018.

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