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Russian rise drives lift in global wheat number: WASDE

Grain Central, October 12, 2020

Russian is forecast to export 39 million tonnes of wheat in the current marketing year. Photo: European Agritel Tour

RUSSIA is forecast to product 83 million tonnes (Mt) of wheat from its current harvest, according to USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) October report released on Friday.

Russia’s production outlook is up 5Mt from the number seen last month, and is based on updated harvest results from Russia’s Ministry of Agriculture, which imply record-high spring wheat yields.

This would be the second-largest Russian crop on record, behind only 2017-18, and WASDE’s figure for Russia’s exports is up 1.5Mt this month to 39Mt, the second highest on record.

Russia’s increased production more than offsets reductions in Ukraine, Canada, Argentina, and the US.

Ukraine’s production has been cut 1.5Mt to 25.5Mt based on Ukraine’s State Statistics Service estimates.

Canada’s production is reduced 1Mt to 35Mt, primarily on the updated Statistics Canada forecast issued 14 September.

Argentina’s production estimate has dropped 500,000t to 19Mt on continued dry conditions in some regions.

World wheat consumption has increased fractionally to 751Mt, primarily on higher feed and residual usage for Russia and greater food, seed, and industrial use in Pakistan and the EU.

These are expected to more than offset lower feed and residual use for Ukraine and Canada.

The 2020-21 global wheat outlook is for larger supplies, increased consumption, greater exports, and higher stocks.

Supplies are raised 2.2Mt to 1072.5Mt, mostly on Russia’s production increase.

Wheat trade increase seen

Projected 2020-21 global trade is up 500,000t to 189.9Mt based on higher exports for Russia which should more than offset reductions for Argentina and Ukraine.

The largest import changes this month are for China and Pakistan, both up 500,000t.

China’s imports are raised on a strong early pace and are now 7.5Mt, making China the third-largest global importer for 2020-21.

Pakistan imports are now seen at 1.5M to raise stocks which have been relatively tight.

Wheat imports for North Africa, which includes Egypt as the world’s biggest imported market, have risen 300,000t in this month’s WASDE to 29.9Mt, while South-East Asian demand is seen at a steady 26.35Mt.

Projected 2020-21 world ending stocks are raised 2.1Mt to 321.5Mt to a new record, with Russia accounting for most of the increase this month.

Reduced US supplies

The outlook for 2020-21 US wheat this month is for reduced supplies, higher domestic use, unchanged exports, and lower ending stocks.

Supplies are reduced on the combination of lower beginning stocks and production.

Partly offsetting are lower imports, with all the reduction for durum.

Coarse grains cuts

This month’s 2020-21 US corn outlook is for lower production, reduced corn used for ethanol and feed and residual use, and smaller ending stocks.

The reduced production forecast comes from a reduction in harvested area and a slight decline in yield, while corn supplies are forecast down sharply from last month on a smaller crop and lower beginning stocks.

Global coarse grain production for 2020-21 are forecast lower to 1458.8Mt.

The 2020-21 foreign coarse grain outlook is for higher production, increased use, and greater stocks relative to last month.

Foreign corn production is forecast modestly higher with increases for countries including Burkina, Ghana, Kenya, Mali, Serbia and Tanzania more than offsetting declines for Ukraine and the EU.

The projected corn yield for Ukraine is lowered based on reported harvest results to date.

Forecast corn exports have been raised for Serbia, but lowered for Ukraine and the EU.

For 2019-20, corn exports for Argentina are raised for the local marketing year beginning March 2020 based on larger-than-expected shipments through September.

Forecast 2020-21 corn imports have been lowered for the EU, Iran, and Kenya, but raised for Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Vietnam.

Foreign corn ending stocks are higher, mostly reflecting increases for Mexico, the EU, and Canada.

Global corn ending stocks at 300.5Mt are down 6.3Mt from last month.

 

 

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