GROWING conditions in a chunk of the world’s wheat-producing area are far from ideal, according to the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) monthly market monitor report.
Its latest report said early indications for 2018/19 pointed to an overall global balanced outlook for wheat, maize, rice and soybeans, and described conditions for northern-hemisphere spring and winter wheat as mixed.
“The US, Canada, EU, Ukraine, and the Russian Federation are all experiencing adverse climatic conditions in some areas,” the report said, adding that dryness in Australia was the only trouble spot for southern-hemisphere wheat production.
“In Australia, conditions are favourable in the west, while low soil moisture across much of the eastern and southern areas is affecting winter wheat.”
AMIS said conditions in the EU were favourable in some areas, but parts of central and eastern Europe were affected by a lack of precipitation.
“In Ukraine, winter wheat conditions are generally favourable, though recent hot and dry conditions in the south are causing premature ripening in some areas, creating a potential risk to final yields.”
The report said Russia’s winter wheat was entering its critical development stage in mixed conditions due to recent heat and dryness in the south, and spring wheat was being sown under mostly favourable conditions with some delays in the east due to wet weather.
Kazakhstan’s spring wheat is being planted in favourable conditions, and China was enjoying favourable conditions for its winter and spring wheat.
AMIS said drought conditions remained in the southern Great Plains of the US, but recent rain has potentially improved conditions for this significant winter-wheat crop.
Canada’s prairies are described as having low soil moisture, which is affecting spring and winter wheat in areas while winter-wheat conditions in Ontario are described as favourable.
“Precipitation in the next few weeks will be critical in this region for uniform germination and crop development to avoid a significant decline in crop area.”
AMIS said wheat and rice markets were projected to remain adequately supplied, while maize was expected to experience tightening market conditions based on reduced production prospects for several major exporters.
AMIS’ soybean production forecast, its first for 2018/19, pointed to a tightening but still comfortable situation as world production of soybeans climbs to a new high.
As well as weather, variations in exchange rates, high oil prices and trade policy uncertainties were are all expected to influence global grain and oilseed supply and demand.
AMIS is a branch of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation, and draws information from 12 member organisations to collate a monthly summary of aspects including production, consumption and trade in respect of wheat, rice, soybeans and maize.
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