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Ukraine conflict cuts 7Mt from wheat exports: WASDE

Grain Central, March 10, 2022

The impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is being felt in world oilseed, wheat, barley and corn markets. Photo: Ukrainian Agrarian Association

GLOBAL wheat exports for 2021-22 are forecast at 203.1 million tonnes (Mt), down 3.6Mt from the February estimate, according to USDA’s March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) released overnight.

While USDA has lifted its estimates for Australian exports by 2Mt to a record 27.5Mt, and India’s by 1.5Mt to 8.5Mt, it has cut 4Mt from the Ukraine estimate, now at 20Mt, and 3Mt for Russia, now at 32Mt.

“Russia’s recent military action in Ukraine significantly increased the uncertainty of agricultural supply and demand conditions in the region and globally,” the report stated.

“The March WASDE represents an initial assessment of the short-term impacts as a result of this action.

USDA said the conflict in Ukraine has disrupted vessel movements in the Black Sea, and economic sanctions on Russia will further impact its exports.

“India’s robust export pace is expected to continue because of its ample stocks and rising global prices.”

The Black Sea is a major supplier of wheat to African and Middle East nations, and the Russian invasion is expected to reduce shipments to them in the near term.

“Imports are lowered for many countries including Turkey, Egypt, the EU, Afghanistan, Algeria, Kenya, Pakistan, Tanzania, and Yemen based on reduced Black Sea wheat export availability and higher world prices.”

Corn impacted

USDA has raised its estimate of corn exports for the US and India but reduced the Ukraine figure, now seen at 27.5Mt, down from 33.5Mt forecast in February.

Partly as a result of the Ukraine cut, estimated imports of corn have been lowered for Egypt, Algeria, Turkey, Israel, India, and Bangladesh.

USDA has upped its estimate for barley exports out of Australia and Canada, but reduced the Ukraine figure.

USDA now forecasts Australian 2021-22 barley exports at 9Mt, up 500,000t on last month, and the Canadian figure is up 200,000t to 1.8Mt.

On sorghum, USDA’s estimate for Australian sorghum exports is also up 200,000t, and now sits at 1.6Mt.

Foreign corn ending stocks are higher, mostly reflecting increases for Ukraine, India, and Russia that are partly offset by reductions
for Argentina, South Africa, and Bangladesh.

Global corn ending stocks, at 301Mt are down 1.3Mt from last month.

Oilseeds tighten

USDA has this month cut its estimate for global soybean production 10.1Mt to 353.8Mt, with Brazil down 7Mt to 127Mt, and Argentina down 1.5Mt to 43.5Mt.

“While global soybean crush is lowered 5Mt on a slower-than-expected crush pace for China and lower South American supplies, sunflowerseed crush is reduced another 2.2Mt mainly for Ukraine.

“Major markets impacted by lower Ukrainian sunflowerseed crush and product exports include India and the EU.

“Lower sunflower product supplies in these markets are partly offset by higher soybean oil imports for India and rapeseed imports for the EU.”

Source: USDA

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