RUSSIA is forecast to produce a record wheat crop of 91 million tonnes (Mt), up 3Mt from the August estimate, according to estimates released overnight by the USDA.
In its September USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) and accompanying Grain: World Markets and Trade (GWMT)reports, USDA said feed and residual use in Russia is forecast 1Mt higher to 21Mt on additional domestic wheat supplies.
“Russia is set to have record supplies in 2022-23, enabling the country to soar to record exports,” the GWMT report stated.
Russian production is up from 75Mt in 2021-22 on much-improved weather conditions.
“The restrictive trade policies in place during the second half of the 2021-22 marketing year prompted larger on and off-farm stockholding, leading to large carry-in stocks from which to ship.”
Russia implemented an export quota of 8Mt between February 15 and June 30, the end of the marketing year.
While exports since July 1 have begun to increase, USDA said continued challenges in booking sales and export logistics, and Russia’s ongoing export tax have resulted in a more modest start of the export campaign.
“Over the course of the year, Russia is expected to increase monthly shipments to offset lower exportable supplies from its two main competitors.”
These are the EU with its drought-affected wheat crop, and Ukraine with a smaller crop also and continued logistical constraints on its exports.
“While the grain corridor is currently open, there are upcoming discussions regarding its renewal.
“As the largest exporter and with a bumper crop, Russia seeks to expand its markets overseas, by boosting exports and continuing to open new markets such as Algeria.”
Wheat supplies lift
USDA’s latest 2022-23 global wheat outlook raises supplies, consumption, exports, and ending stocks.
Supplies increase by 3.6Mt to 1059.6Mt, with production increases for Russia and Ukraine more than offsetting a decline in beginning stocks.
Forecast Ukraine wheat production now sits at 20.5Mt, up 1Mt from last month, based on higher-than-expected yields in the forest and forest-steppe zones.
Larger supplies boost global consumption by 2.4Mt to 791Mt, almost entirely on increased feed and residual use, with food, seed, and industrial use nearly unchanged.
USDA’s forecast for EU feed and residual use is up 1Mt to 44Mt as wheat prices are now more competitive with feedgrains, spurring demand.
A 200,000t lift for 2022-23 for Brazil to 3.2Mt is the only change for major global wheat exporters.
USDA’s forecast for Australian wheat production and exports are both unchanged at 33Mt and 25Mt respectively.
World ending stocks are seen as 1.2Mt higher at 268.6Mt as stock increases in Russian and Ukraine more than offset a decline in the EU.
Upside in coarse grains
USDA has increased its forecast for Australia’s 2022-23 sorghum exports to 2.1Mt, up 800,000t from the August estimate, based on an outlook for increased production.
Conversely, lower production in the US has prompted an 800,000t cut to US exports, now forecast at 5Mt.
USDA’s latest outlook for 2022-23 non-US coarse grains is for larger production, higher trade, and
increased stocks relative to last month, with production increases for China, Ukraine, Canada, and Mozambique more than offsetting reductions for the EU and Serbia.
China’s corn production is up 3Mt to 274Mt as rain in key north-east provinces and the North China Plain has boosted yield prospects.
Ukraine corn production is up 1.5Mt to 30Mt based on increased yield expectations, while EU corn production is down 1.2Mt to 58.8Mt based on reductions for France, Romania and Germany.
On barley, estimates for Russian and Australian production are seen as more than offsetting a decline for Syria.
USDA’s forecasts are unchanged from last month for the world’s largest barley exporters, with Australia expected to ship 6.7Mt, followed by the EU on 6.3Mt, Russia on 6Mt, Argentina on 3.7Mt and Canada on 3Mt.
USDA’s estimates for 2022-23 barley imports are also unchanged, with China sitting on 9.5Mt, Saudi Arabia on 4.7Mt and Iran on 2.5Mt the three largest markets.
China is also forecast to import 9.5Mt of wheat, to make it the world’s fourth-biggest wheat importer behind Indonesia on 11.2Mt, Egypt on 11Mt and Turkey on 10.25Mt.
Major global coarse-grain trade changes for 2022-23 include larger corn exports for Ukraine but a reduction for the US.
Foreign corn ending stocks are raised 2.2Mt to 273.6Mt, mostly reflecting increases for China and India that are partially offset by declines for Ukraine, the EU, and Thailand.