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ABARES lifts forecasts for wheat, barley, canola

Grain Central, November 30, 2021

Direct heading canola near Murtoa in Victoria’s Wimmera region. Photo: DASAG

ABARES has lifted its forecasts for the Australian wheat, barley and canola crops now being harvested in its December 2021 Australian Crop Report released today.

Its forecast for wheat at 34.4 million tonnes (Mt) sets a new record, and is up 5.5 per cent from 32.6Mt estimated in the previous report released September 7.

ABARES has lifted its barley number by 6.5pc to 13.3Mt from 12.5Mt forecast in September, while the canola estimate at 5.7Mt is up 13.8pc from 5Mt seen in September.

On wheat, a 10pc increase in the size of the NSW crop and a 9.5pc in the estimate for Victoria have driven the national increase, supported by more modest upward revisions to Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia.

This means NSW is once again expected to buck the trend for the second year running by producing a bigger wheat crop than WA.

WHEAT PRODUCTION 5yr avg to 2020-21 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 Sep estimate 2021-22 Dec estimate
Qld 842,000 418,000 1,103,000 1,763,000 1,789,000
NSW  6,251,000 1,772,000 13,110,000 11,100,000 12,210,000
Vic  3,821,000 3,714,000 4,768,000 3,700,000 4,050,000
Tas  47,000 44,000 56,000 70,000 73,000
SA  4,140,000 2,689,000 4,800,000 4,500,000 4,600,000
WA  8,533,000 5,842,000 9,500,000 11,500,000 11,700,000
TOTAL TONNES  23,634,000 14,479,000 33,337,000 32,633,000 34,422,000

Table 1: Tonnes of wheat produced in all Australian states. Source: ABARES

WHEAT AREA 5yr avg to 2020-21 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 Sep estimate 2021-22 Dec estimate
Qld 575,000  441,000  750,000 750,000 795,000
NSW 2,871,000  2,132,000  3,800,000 3,700,000 3,700,000
Vic 1,467,000  1,429,000  1,600,000 1,520,000 1,520,000
Tas 8,000  7,000  10,000 15,000 15,000
SA 1,954,000  1,721,000  2,075,000 2,075,000 2,075,000
WA 4,397,000  4,133,000  4,750,000 4,900,000 4,900,000
TOTAL HECTARES  11,272,000 9,863,000 12,985,000 12,960,000 13,005,000

Table 2: Hectares of wheat planted in all Australian states. Source: ABARES

BARLEY PRODUCTION 5yr avg to 2020-21 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 Sep estimate 2021-22 Dec estimate
Qld 215,000 80,000 240,000 377,000 435,000
NSW  1,838,000 916,000 3,230,000 2,655,000 2,880,000
Vic 2,486 ,000 3,117,000 2,784,000 2,300,000 2,475,000
Tas  28,000 23,000 39,000 45,000 45,000
SA 2,175 ,000 1,995,000 2,400,000 2,200,000 2,250,000
WA 4,218 ,000 3,996,000 4,400,000 4,900,000 5,200,000
TOTAL TONNES 10,960 ,000 10,127,000 13,093,000 12,477,000 13,285,000

Table 3: Tonnes of barley produced in all Australian states. Source: ABARES

BARLEY AREA 5yr avg to 2020-21 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 Sep estimate 2021-22 Dec estimate
Qld 114,000 80,000 135,000 130,000 150,000
NSW  865,000  885,000  950,000 900,000 900,000
Vic  931,000  1,102,000 870,000 850,000 850,000
Tas  6,000 5,000 7,000 10,000 10,000
SA  930,000 1,061,000 860,000 850,000 850,000
WA  1,726,000 1,907,000 1,600,000 1,600,000 1,600,000
TOTAL HECTARES  4,572,000 5,040,000 4,422,000 4,340,000 4,360,000

Table 4: Hectares of barley planted in all Australian states. Source: ABARES

CANOLA PRODUCTION 5yr avg to 2020-21 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 Sep estimate 2021-22 Dec estimate
Qld 1,000 1,000 1,000 4,000 4,000
NSW 737,000 206,000 1,073,000 1,360,000 1,600,000
Vic 752,000 731,000 950,000 900,000 1,000,000
Tas 3,000 2,000 3,000 3,000 2,500
SA 315,000 241,000 375,000 370,000 375,000
WA 1,577,000 1,117,000 1,650,000 2,400,000 2,750,000
TOTAL TONNES  3,385,000 2,298,000 4,052,000 5,037,000 5,731,500

Table 5: Tonnes of canola produced in all Australian states. Source: ABARES

CANOLA AREA 5yr avg to 2020-21 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 Sep estimate 2021-22 Dec estimate
Qld  1,000 1,000 2,000 2,000 2,000
NSW  586,000 327,000 550,000 800,000 800,000
Vic  428,000 405,000 450,000 460,000 460,000
Tas 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,300
SA 200,000 153,000 225,000 230,000 230,000
WA  1,262,000 1,148,000 1,150,000 1,550,000 1,550,000
TOTAL HECTARES  2,478,000 2,035,000 2,378,000 3,043,000 3,043,300

Table 6: Hectares of canola planted in all Australian states. Source: ABARES

Source: ABARES

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