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GIWA forecasts WA crop at 16.3Mt after welcome rain

Grain Central July 12, 2024

Daisy and friends inspect a wheat crop in the Moora district. Photo: Alana Alexander, Summit Fertilizers

THE GRAIN Industry Association of Western Australia has released its initial estimate for the state’s winter crop now up and away in virtually all areas at 16.3 million tonnes  (Mt) from 8.7M hectares.

In its July crop report released today, author Michael Lamond said rain at the start of July has reached most grain-growing regions of WA, with falls of 15mm or more for all areas.

The exceptions are parts of the southern regions, and western portions of the Esperance port zone, while northern zones received well in excess of 15mm.

“Many crops were on a knife-edge at the end of June with little or no subsoil-moisture reserves, and the rain could not have come sooner,” Mr Lamond said in the report.

“Crops were starting to show signs of moisture stress from the dry warm June, and were getting to a point where grain yield potential may have been difficult to recover.”

Mr Lamond said WA’s crops now look “deceptively fresh”, and in general have reasonable grain-yield potential.

“Rainfall deciles are low or very low for all areas of the state and it is going to need to be a good year from here on in to hit the current potential of 15-16Mt of total grain for Western Australia.”

Mr Lamond said cereals are in better condition than the break crops, which have suffered more from the late start and patchy June rainfall.

“Canola and lupin grain yields will be at the lower end of long-term averages for their regions.”

The total crop area in the state is up from 2023 plantings, and the area of canola is down, replaced by wheat.

GIWA’s July area estimate for all crops are unchanged from the June figures, with the exception being canola, which is 10,000ha lower.

Oat area has increased in traditional oat-growing regions, although there is little change elsewhere.

“The lupin area is down again this year to 20-year lows, and pulse crop area is insignificant in the scheme of things.”

GIWA’s estimate for the 2023-24 crop stands at 14.53Mt, well down from the record years of 2021-22 and 2022-23 at 24.01Mt and 26.06Mt respectively.

Source: GIWA

Further detail on crop conditions in individual WA port zones can be found as part of the full report on the GIWA website. 

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