GRAINCORP expects to report underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation in range of $270-$320 million for the financial year ending 30 September 2025.

This is slightly higher than the final EBITDA result for FY24 of $268M.

During the company’s annual general meeting held today, managing director and CEO Robert Spurway said GrainCorp expects higher receivals and exports of the 2024-25 east coast Australia (ECA) crop to support these earnings.

“The winter crop harvest got off to an early start in Queensland and northern New South Wales, and it was pleasing to see several of GrainCorp’s sites in those regions achieve new grain-receival records,” Mr Spurway said.

“However, conditions were more challenging in southern regions, with the Victorian crop in particular down on recent seasons.”

He said as at this week, GrainCorp had received 11.9M tonnes since October 1, with the year-to-date figure being up on the comparable February 2024 total of 8.5Mt, and supported by an opening carry-in position of 2.5Mt.

Mr Spurway said prospects for the current summer crop were also encouraging, and had total expected receivals for the year to September at above the 10.1Mt delivered in 2023-24.

“We expect FY25 receivals of 13-14Mt…reflecting a year-on-year increase in ECA grain production.

“We expect that higher receivals will support an FY25 export program of 6.5-7.5Mt.”

This compares with 5.6Mt shipped in 2023-24.

“We expect margins to be compressed by strong supply of grains and oilseeds globally and lower demand.

“In our Nutrition and Energy businesses, we are expecting to continue achieving strong oilseed crush volumes as we remain focused on optimising the performance of our processing facilities.

“Average crush margins in FY25 are expected to moderate from FY24 levels, following a below-average Victorian canola crop and lower global oil and meal prices.”

GrainCorp managing director and CEO Robert Spurway and non-executive director Kathy Grigg AM at the AGM.

Buoyant outlook for biofuel

Alongside general positivity on the prospects of a strong summer crop and utilisation of the company’s ECA network, Mr Spurway said the company remained confident about the opportunity to supply feedstock to the renewable fuels industry.

He said while GrainCorp noted BP’s recent decision to pause work on its renewable fuels project at Kwinana, the sector was “an inevitable growth area”.

“Nothing has changed in terms of the mandates that we are seeing in places like South-east Asia, Europe and the UK around sustainable aviation fuel.

“Markets like Japan, Singapore and California in the US are very resilient on what their views are on this.

“Policy, whilst it is evolving in the US, still is supportive of biofuels for sustainable aviation fuel.

“At the moment we are still exporting oilseed, used cooking oils, tallow and other products…and that part of our business continues to grow.

“We think it is inevitable that over time, with the right policy settings, there will be confidence from the fuel refiners to invest in Australia and that will create the opportunities for GrainCorp to build a feedstock plant that creates jobs, investment and importantly returns for GrainCorp and growers in that space.”

In July, GrainCorp entered a Memorandum of Understanding with Ampol and fund manager IFM Investors to explore the establishment of an Australian-based low-carbon liquid fuel supply chain.

“The feasibility study for additional crush capacity is progressing well, and includes consideration of the policies and conditions required to support an investment of this nature.

“The initial timeline for this project, including the target to commence a FEED phase in 2026, remains subject to the development and evolution of government policy to accelerate supply and demand of low-carbon liquid fuels.”

Mr Spurway said the company was “focused on working with our partners, with the sector and with government” to develop the policy settings necessary to support moving the sector forward.

“Our representation in the Jet Zero Council is one way we are having a significant influence on the development of that policy and driving what we think is right not just for GrainCorp but for sector generally.”

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