Photo: Cotton Australia

INCREASING global supply and drier conditions are expected to see the value of Australia’s total agricultural production in the year to 30 June 2024 gross $78 billion, down $16B from FY23, according to ABARES estimates released today in its quarterly Agricultural Commodities Report.

ABARES acting executive director David Galeano said despite the year-on-year drop, the FY24 forecast would still be the third-highest result on record.

“The gross value of production is forecast to fall in 2023-24 as drier conditions impact record-high crop production levels seen in 2022-23,” Mr Galeano said.

The cropping component is forecast at $46B, down $12B from FY23, with wheat alone falling by $6.8B.

The value of canola is expected to drop $2.9B year on year, with barley down $1.2B, and pulses,
sorghum, and cotton values collectively forecast to fall $2.1B.

“Livestock production values are also forecast to decline reflecting recent price falls.”

“Falling production values and incomes are also linked to declining global prices that are reflective of higher global supply.”

Mr Galeano said the past three years has seen record-breaking crop production because of higher rainfall.

“As we enter the El Niño period, we expect to see the national crop production fall from these record highs.

“Crop prospects for winter crops over spring have been mixed, and planting of summer crops in 2023-24 is expected to fall, reflecting below-average rainfall and low soil moisture levels during the early planting window.

“Drier conditions and lower prices mean average broadacre farm cash incomes are forecast to fall strongly in 2023-24.

“However, the past three years of high incomes have allowed broadacre farms to build up liquid assets, which should help cushion the forecast downturn.”

Source: ABARES