August to October 2022 rainfall outlook:
Wetter August to October likely for most of Australia
September 2022 rainfall outlook:
Maximum temperature outlook:
August to October maximum temperatures are likely to be above median across the tropics, south-eastern SA, most of Victoria, all of Tasmania, and most of WA away from the south-eastern interior. Below median maximum temperatures are likely for the south-eastern quarter of Queensland and most of central-eastern and north-eastern NSW, extending across inland South Australia into south-east WA (chance of exceeding the median is less than 40%).
There is more than double the normal chance of unusually high maximum temperatures (in the warmest 20% of all August to October periods over 1981–2018) across most of the tropics, and Tasmania.
Minimum temperatures for August to October are very likely to be above median almost Australia wide, with a greater than 80% chance for most parts.
There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures (in the warmest 20% of all August to October periods over 1981–2018) for August to October across almost all of Australia, ranging from 1.5 times the normal chance for south-western WA, to greater than 3 times the normal chance across most of the east, and more than 4 times the normal chance for parts of the tropics.
Past accuracy for August to October chance of above median maximum temperature outlooks issued at the end of July is high to very high for almost all of Australia. For minimum temperatures, accuracy is high to very high for most of Australia.
Source: Bureau of Meteorology. To view more outlook maps for coming weeks and months click here
Previous forecast versus actual rainfall
Maps below compare BOM’s rainfall forecast for April to June 2022, issued 31 March 2022, with actual rainfall recorded over the April to June 2022 period.
Forecast median rainfall April to June 2022:
Actual rainfall recorded April to June 2022:
Source: Bureau of Meteorology