Weather

Seasonal climate outlook for Dec-Feb

Grain Central, November 30, 2021

Dec-Feb Rainfall outlook

Rainfall outlook December 2021 – February 2022

 

Wetter than median summer likely for parts of eastern Australia

December to February rainfall is likely to be above median for northern and eastern Queensland, eastern and central NSW, western Victoria, and eastern Tasmania (chance of exceeding median is greater than 60%). Chances are highest for eastern Queensland, where chances of above median summer rainfall are 70–75% in patches. The rest of Australia has roughly equal chances of above or below median rainfall (chance of exceeding the median is close to 50%).

December rainfall is similar to the summer rainfall pattern, and is likely to be above median for eastern parts of Queensland and NSW, as well as scattered parts of south-west WA, Victoria and eastern Tasmania. Conversely, large parts of northern and central WA and small patches of the central NT, and western Tasmania are likely to have below median rainfall. The rest of Australia has roughly equal chances of above or below median rainfall.

The week of 29 November to 5 December is likely to be drier than median for most of the country, with the western Pilbara and far north Queensland likely to be wetter than median.

Past accuracy for December to February rainfall is moderate to high for most of Australia, shifting to low accuracy along the WA border, the southern NT, southern parts of SA, along the Queensland-NSW border, and parts of Tasmania.

 

January 2022 rainfall outlook:

 

‘First look’ January to March 2022 rainfall outlook

Temperature outlook

Warm summer days for much of the country, with warmer nights very likely

December to February maximum temperatures are likely to be above median for much of WA, the NT, much of Queensland, northern and eastern SA, western NSW, western and central Victoria, and Tasmania (greater than 60% chance). Below median daytime temperatures are likely for eastern NSW extending into eastern Victoria (chance of exceeding the median is less than 40%).

There is an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures (in the top 20% of historical records) for December to February over most of WA, the NT, western and central Queensland, most of SA, and western parts of NSW, Victoria and Tasmania (1.5 to 3.0 times the usual chance). In any given outlook period, the chance of unusually high or low maximum temperatures is around 20%. This means that a 40% chance of unusually warm conditions is twice the normal likelihood, while 60% is three times

Minimum temperatures for December to February are likely to be warmer than median for most of Australia (chances are greater than 60%), with most areas very likely (greater than 80% chance). However, south-eastern WA and south-western SA have roughly equal chances of above or below median overnight temperatures (chance of exceeding the median is close to 50%).

There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures (in the top 20% of historical records) for December to February over most of Australia except south-east WA and north-east NSW (1.5 to more 4.0 times the usual chance), with the highest likelihood for northern Australia.

Past accuracy for December to February maximum temperatures is moderate to very high for almost all of Australia, with moderate to low accuracy for the southern NT. For minimum temperatures, accuracy is high to very high across the southern half of the country and parts of the far north, with moderate to low accuracy for far northern WA, extending into central parts of the NT and across through central parts of Queensland.

Minimum temperature December to February

 

Source: Bureau of Meteorology.

To view more outlook maps for coming weeks and months click here

Previous forecast versus actual rainfall

Maps below compare BOM’s rainfall forecast for September to November 2021, issued 26 August 2021, with actual rainfall recorded over the September to November 2021 period.

Forecast median rainfall September to November 2021:

 

Actual rainfall recorded September to November 2021:

 

Source: Bureau of Meteorology

 

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