September to November 2020 rainfall outlook
A wetter Spring for most of Australia
September to November is likely to be wetter than average across much of Australia, (greater than 60% chance in most areas, greater than 75% in much of the eastern half of the mainland).
Chances of a drier than average spring are seen in south-west Tasmania (greater than 60% chance), and roughly equal chances of wetter or drier conditions across the west and north of WA.
September is typically the last month of the northern Australian dry season.
The Northern Rainfall Onset outlook indicates early rainfall onset is likely for most of northern Australia, but roughly equal chances of an early or late rainfall onset for the western and far northern WA.
The northern rainfall onset outlook gives an indication of whether the first significant rains after 1 September are likely to be earlier or later than average.
‘First look’ October to December 2020 rainfall outlook:
Warmer nights for most of Australia
Days during September to November are very likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia’s northern tropics and Tasmania (mostly greater than 80% chance) and also likely (mostly greater than 65% chance) warmer than average for the southern half of Victoria, extending into the Alpine region and along the coastal fringe of NSW.
The outlook indicates slightly increased chances of cooler than average days (mostly 55 to 65% chance) across most of the remainder of the southern half of the mainland. The chances of cooler days are highest in coastal south-east WA and around the junctions of the NSW/SA/Victorian borders.
Night-time temperatures for September to November are very likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia (greater than 80% chance in most areas), although chances are close to equal for south-west WA.
Source: Bureau of Meteorology. To view more outlook maps for coming weeks and months click here
Previous forecast versus actual rainfall
Maps below compare BOM’s rainfall forecast for May to July 2020, issued 30 April 2020, with actual rainfall recorded over the May to July 2020 period.
FORECAST MEDIAN RAINFALL MAY to JULY 2020:
ACTUAL RAINFALL RECORDED MAY to JULY 2020:
Source: Bureau of Meteorology