Wheat market movements were mixed after a round of disappointing US export sales. Could it be that US has priced itself out of the game? It was always going to be an interesting session, with Ukraine and the EU all getting a blast of rainfall in the 10-day outlook. Russian cash markets were quoted at $3/t lower, with losses limited by the fact there is little relief in Russia.

US corn keeps finding its way on to a boat with an impressive 2.14 million tonnes (Mt) sold over the week. The International Grains Council trimmed global corn production by 6Mt to 1.16 billion tonnes (Bt), with the US, Ukraine and China the main sources of the downward revision.

Algeria bought 117,000t of barley at $220.50-$221.25/t which should, on paper at least, pencil in from Australia.

Argentina’s peso is struggling against central bank tightening, with soybean meal values holding their breath, and waiting for South American new crop.  This will have an impact on global feed rations.

China’s domestic corn futures have had a quiet week after posting contract highs at the end of last week. This hasn’t trimmed China’s physical appetite, and the debate is now focused on the current run rate: Is China building stocks, or is this a true reflection of underlying demand?

We saw new-crop wheat grower bids pull back in the morning to finish unchanged for the day, along with the rest of the trade.  New-crop barley again traded a touch firmer, and the bids and offers have narrowed in eastern zones. Old-crop values in Victoria have remained relatively flat, with some domestic homes a little stronger for October slots.  Wheat and barley is still trading in bits and pieces, with ASW1 G/M around $305-310/t.

Good rain fell through South Australia and Victoria, with areas like Clare in SA receiving up to 20 millimetres, and parts of the Wimmera up to 10-15mm.  Frost potential through Victoria has now been reduced for the next four to five days, but the state is still on high watch.

Source: Lachstock Consulting