Harvesting sorghum on Queensland’s Darling Downs. Photo: Lance Wise

AUSTRALIA exported 838,793 tonnes of barley and 208,907t of sorghum, with China the leading destination by far for malting and feed barley, as well as sorghum, according to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Malting barley exports at 206,248t more than doubled from the 87,635t shipped in February, with China accounting for 152,265t, Vietnam 25,477t, and Peru 22,000t.

On feed barley, March volume at 632,545t dropped 29 percent from the 889,689t shipped in February, with China the destination for 561,903t, followed by Saudi Arabia on 55,730t, and Vietnam on 3267t.

Sorghum exports continued their annual climb to reflect new-crop availability, with the March being close to double the 106,298t shipped in February.

Well behind China on 166,973t, Kenya on 29,998t, and Taiwan on 7994t were the major destinations.

Flexi Grain pool manager Sam Roache said barley exports, as expected, continued the strong tone for March, with malting and FAQ shipments higher, and Chinese demand and share of exports improving to around 85pc.

“Shipping pace continues to impress, with November-March averaging almost 900,000t per month and running at a faster pace than last year for the period,” Mr Roache said.

“Our expectation is that exports should begin to slow considerably now, with stocks drawn down in both New South Wales and Victoria.”

Mr Roache said Queensland barley was beginning to work in containers, and a surprising amount of barley was still sitting in South Australian ports.

“It seems uncommitted at this time and continues to be uneconomic to export, likely on account of the dry, and limited farmer selling.

“Unsurprisingly, Western Australia has the lion’s share of remaining stocks and the export program, with around 700,000-800,000t likely to be exported post May.”

Mr Roache said most of the WA program appeared to be sold and committed, but good demand existed for June-August for remaining tonnage.

“Prices calculate well into China still, so there is no real reason to doubt we will hit our export targets and bring barley close to a record tight level on carry-out stocks again, similar to last year.”

Mr Roache said dry conditions in Vic and southern NSW, along with the continuing drought across SA, have added another element to barley demand.

“Tight hay and other fibre options have seen paddock and additional feed demand really fire up over the past four weeks, driving interior prices well above export parity and highlighting how tight the barley picture has been for some time.

“Export activity in Vic and NSW will be shut off for new business at current price levels, which are calculating at significant negative margins.

“We expect this demand to continue for a couple of months at least, which will offer an excellent price opportunity for anyone carrying length.

“Grain stuck in SA ports unfortunately continues to under-perform, which is unlikely to change, given the price spike in recent weeks being entirely domestic.”

Tariff ramifications

Mr Roache said the de-escalation of US-China tariffs will remove some support for Australian barley, and US sorghum was likely to return to calculating into China’s feed rations.

“The possibility of a US-China deal inclusive of large ag purchases is real, which could further erode any benefits we have been seeing on the demand side; this is something to watch.”

Australia’s jump in sorghum exports in March was the culmination of new-crop availability, stem space, and strong Chinese demand, along with good outside demand from Kenya, a regular buyer this time of year for local food consumption.

April and subsequent months are also looking like showing big volumes, with sorghum shipping slots available in Newcastle in NSW, and Brisbane, Gladstone, and Mackay in Qld.

“We have also run into more demand, with US tariffs kicking in over March-April and eliminating the largest competitor, the US, for May-June forward shipping.

“The US exports more than double a normal Australian sorghum program, so the only expectation is that we see exports continue to exceed historical monthly volumes until something changes, or we run out of stock.”

For Australia, Mr Roache said sorghum has been the major beneficiary of the US-China trade war to date.

“Australia’s largest competitor has been removed from the picture for our key export period.

“With this in mind, sorghum has the most to lose from possible trade resolution and potential trade deals with a significant ag component that will see demand channel to the US.

“We can take direction on this from the last trade deal, and the market is already talking about the possibilities and implications.”

Table 1: Australian exports of malting barley from October 2024 to March 2025. Source: ABS

Table 2: Australian exports of feed barley from October 2024 to March 2025. Source: ABS

Table 3: Australian exports of sorghum from October 2024 to March 2025. Source: ABS

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