Weather: Weather looks a little more conducive to harvest across southern Australia over the next few days, which should see cereals begin to flow more readily. It’ll be interesting to see how the domestic market reacts as grain starts to move.
Markets: A revised larger Russian crop and a stronger USD pressured markets overnight, with red across the board. Some US wheat booked by China wasn’t enough to provide support, and soybeans followed the same script. Globally it’s feeling heavy.
Australian Day Ahead: A softer AUD should help cushion the offshore move, leaving cereals relatively unchanged. Canola expected to be steady to fractionally firmer. Hopefully some decent weather ahead for both harvesting — and the cricket.
Offshore
Wheat
Futures weakened as CBOT March fell to $5.40¾, pressured by expectations of a larger Russian crop.
SovEcon raised Russia’s wheat estimate by 800kt to 88.6 million tonnes (Mt), driven by stronger output from Siberia.
Southern Russia — the key export hub — still delivered a weak harvest, limiting export-ready supply.
USDA export sales for the week showed 887,900t of wheat booked across marketing years.
China purchased 132,000t of US white wheat for 2025/26 — the first known wheat sale to China this cycle.
A stronger USD continues to weigh on US export competitiveness and futures sentiment.
Other grains and oilseeds
Soybeans fell 1.2 percent despite strong export interest, with January futures at $11.23¾.
China booked 462,000t of soybeans Thursday, lifting total purchases since Oct 30 to 1.8Mt.
Traders remain cautious as Brazil advances a record soy harvest and remains cheaper into China.
Corn export sales were strong at 2.26Mt, though futures still slipped on weaker soy and crude.
USDA soybean sales lag broader expectations, with analysts warning US exports could fall short unless yield is cut.
Canola attempted to resume its post-harvest uptrend but was pulled lower by declines in Chicago soy/oil and Malaysian palm, with only modest support from MATIF rapeseed.
Macro
US equity markets fell as doubts resurfaced about stretched AI valuations after an early-session rally.
US unemployment ticked up from 4.3pc to 4.4pc, with participation rising to 62.4pc.
Nonfarm payrolls rose 119k vs consensus 52k, but revisions and internals suggest a soft labour market.
Treasury yields fell, with the US 10-yr down to 4.11pc as markets priced a 40pc chance of a December Fed cut.
Oil softened on easing geopolitical tensions and speculation of progress on a Ukraine peace framework.
The stronger USD (DXY above 100) continues to pressure commodities, particularly export-linked ags.
Australia
Steady to slightly softer in the west yesterday, with canola bid A$828 and GM $706, wheat was $338 and barley $305 FIS Albany.
In the east canola was back a little to $812 while GM was $729, wheat was steady $338 and barley $306 track Geelong.
Reports of mixed barley quality through parts of SA and Vic, with some test-weight issues in certain varieties, though yields have been outstanding given the growing season rainfall.
Some heat due over the weekend and early next week should help speed up harvest and allow growers to fill some of these prompt shorts — a good opportunity for those positioned to move grain.
Forecast looks pretty clear for the first Test — perfect conditions for another chapter in the Australia–England rivalry and at least three days of arguments about what “spirit of cricket” actually means.
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