Weather:
More of the same from a weather point of view but some increased volatility in Russia, mainly in min temps.
Similar story across EU as well.
Markets
AUD eventually found a reason to like the CPI data – although, from my perspective it was probably a little more mixed than some of the headlines suggest. The market is split on timing of a hike rather than if it will happen with many moving their ideas of the first rate increase to later in the year.
Offshore futures loved the weaker USD – becomes a vague FX hedge for the local market – ie, AUD higher, bearish local price, but global futures rally, bullish for local price
Australian Day Ahead
Lots for the local market to digest – still a furnace in much of the eastern states while AUD is a wet blanket to value. Add in the BOM El Niño outlook and liquidity looks like it will suffer.

Wheat

Chicago +12.75c, Kansas +9.5c, Matif +€2.75
Wheat led the ag complex higher as a sharply weaker USD finally forced large fund shorts to cover, triggering a squeeze across Chicago winter wheat.
Funds remain heavily net short, leaving the market vulnerable to further order-flow driven upside despite a lack of fresh fundamental support.
The narrowing WHK spread moved the market into potential storage contraction territory, adding pressure to shorts with 16 days left in the observation period.
Export sales expectations are modest and easily achievable versus USDA targets, while dryness across the southern Plains persists with no meaningful rain in the next two weeks.
Matif followed Chicago higher and Russian cash values remain competitive near US$231/t. Global fundamentals remain heavy, but USD weakness and spread dynamics are dominating near-term price action.

Other grains and oilseeds

Corn +3.5c, Soybeans +7.75c, Matif +3.25
Corn found a bid largely in sympathy with wheat and ahead of weekly export sales, with the market wary after last week’s strong surprise.
A weaker USD and concerns over Argentine crop conditions supported prices, although improved rain prospects in the 11–15 day forecast capped enthusiasm. Soybeans were lifted by strength in meal, resilient technicals, Argentine dryness and a lack of aggressive Brazilian selling despite a firm BRL.
Biofuel policy headlines around E15 remain supportive at the margin but are not seen as a game-changer.
Canola fundamentals improved materially after China resumed purchases of Canadian seed and meal following a reset in trade relations, with initial estimates suggesting at least 600kt booked and crush margins turning positive.
Palm oil strength and global vegoil flows provided additional background support.

Macro

Aud 0.7042, Dow +12, Crude 1.12bbl
A sharply weaker US dollar was the key macro driver, boosting ag competitiveness and accelerating short covering across grains.
In Australia, CPI printed hotter than expected but underlying momentum remains consistent with cooling inflation, reinforcing expectations that the RBA holds rates near term and resumes easing later in 2026 rather than hiking.
Energy markets were firmer, lending some support to biofuel-linked commodities, while falling US ethanol stocks and stable production offered a mild tailwind.
Geopolitical noise around US trade policy, Canada–US tensions, and shifting global trade alliances continues to add uncertainty, but currency moves remain the dominant cross-market influence.

Local

A little softer for cereals in the west, with wheat back to A$318 and barley $320, while canola was steady at $780 FIS Albany.
Steady in the east yesterday with canola around $751, wheat $325 and barley $304 track Geelong.
Faba beans have lost some ground recently as export programs fill and the AUD provides headwinds; bids are around $440 delivered Geelong/Melbourne, back from ~$460.
Protein is scarce in Vic, particularly H1, with demand from box exports and some bulk programs pulling higher-end protein north.