Weather: Warm and dry through Europe, very warm in the US but some rain on the plains, mixed in South America.
The forecast rainfall for Australia has moved well and truly into southern NSW, Vic and SA.
Markets

I’m pretty impressed with wheat’s ability to hang in there – it would have rolled over a month ago. Risk premium is not an exact science – solving for what wheat should be worth what-if something happens and yield estimates are impacted.
Donald’s follow up tariffs are confusing to say the least – China has come back from their New Year break trying to work out whats the least amount they can buy prior to their catch up with the US.

Day Ahead – Australia

Unchanged today probably, the rain event through SA and Vic have the potential to free up some southern tonnage, however, the north is challenging. Values firmed yesterday as the forecast gave little in the way of confidence in NNSW and QLD. We are now solving for what level the grower gets engaged or is it simply about planting rain.

Global wheat:  Chicago -0.2%, Kansas -5.25c, Matif -0.50€
Wheat futures saw modest losses, with Kansas leading the decline on improved rain forecasts for the southern Plains after March 2nd, while Chicago traded technically within Friday’s range and Matif edged lower.
Russian cash values held near US$234.50/t and global attention remains on Algerian demand around the $260 level.
EU soft wheat exports have reached 15.4m tons since July, ahead of last year, while Jordan passed on a 120k ton wheat tender and India set a 2.5m ton export quota with additional allowances possible.
Ukraine’s deep soil freeze may delay spring sowing, adding uncertainty to Black Sea supply.
Positioning remains a focus, with COT data likely to show a sizeable reduction in the Chicago net short following the recent 30c rally.
Near term bias remains cautious given improved US weather and relative US price competitiveness concerns.

Other grains and oilseeds: Corn -0.3%, Soybeans +0.4%, Matif Canola +EUR$1
Corn slipped despite strong US export inspections running 46% above last year, as Brazil farmer selling remains slow and Argentina holds the cheapest FOB offers.
Brazilian corn ethanol production is up 17% year-on-year, while Dr Cordonnier trimmed Brazil’s corn crop estimate to 135m tons.
Soybeans firmed on expectations of Chinese buying following Lunar New Year, supported by strong crush margins and speculation ahead of a potential Trump-Xi meeting, although Brazil’s record crop is nearly $40/tonne cheaper than US supplies.
Brazilian soybean output was trimmed slightly to 178m tons.
Canola extended its rally, with May closing just under C$700 supported by strength in Chicago soyoil, though palm oil softened amid weaker exports and a stronger ringgit.
Overall, oilseeds remain underpinned by margins and policy speculation, including chatter around renewable fuel standards, despite large South American supplies.

Macro: AUD slightly lower 0.7058, Dow mixed/steady, Crude lower
Chalmers is signalling a more fiscally disciplined May budget — potentially including savings measures, productivity reforms and tax changes such as CGT adjustments — amid rising criticism over record non-pandemic spending, structural deficits and debt approaching $1 trillion, with the NDIS now costing roughly $40–45 billion annually and projected to approach $58 billion later this decade, making it one of the largest and fastest-growing expenditure items and a key contributor to medium-term spending pressures alongside health, aged care and childcare
US consumer confidence improved modestly in February, driven by better expectations, although labour market sentiment remains soft.
ADP data point to gradual stabilisation in employment growth but at subdued levels. Fedspeak continues to emphasise patience, with most officials waiting for clearer disinflation progress before easing; markets price cuts from mid-year with expectations of around 75bp this year.
Trade policy uncertainty remains elevated as the US imposed a 10% tariff following a Supreme Court ruling, with President Trump warning of higher duties if countries retreat from agreements.
China signalled it is monitoring US actions ahead of further talks.
Crude oil eased ahead of renewed US-Iran discussions, while geopolitical risk remains in focus including potential Iran-China missile negotiation.

Local: In the west of the country, canola was softer, back A$5/t to $755, wheat was steady at $318 and barley stronger at $325. New crop was bid $782 for canola, $340 for wheat and $315 for barley.
Through the east, canola was $752, wheat $321 and barley $306 track Geelong.
Northern markets continue to strengthen on low liquidity despite a heavy balance sheet. Barley and wheat are now both bid around $352, while sorghum is sitting in the mid $340s.
Canola delivered Melbourne is bid around $780 with GM near $700, though demand is currently subdued with strong nearby cover.