Weather: Outside of the US HRW belt and parts of the Aussie east coast, there isn’t a massive market moving problem globally. This explains how agnostic the global grain markets have been despite the noise from the Iran conflict. Having said that, the HRW problems seem to be getting worse and sub $6/bu doesn’t feel like enough risk premium.

Markets: The Strait is blocked… oh wait, no it’s not. Reports of a Chinese vessel and several Iranian vessels blasting through have taken the shine off Trumps claims, although it does look like the US and Iran will be heading back to the negotiating table.

Day Ahead – Australia: More of the same. The rally in US futures doesn’t really matter today – its more about the push/pull between local dryness and a lack of export interest.

Global wheat: SRW Chicago +9.75c, Kansas City +19.5c, Matif flat
US wheat futures surged on Tuesday, driven by a combination of deteriorating crop conditions and growing weather concerns across the southern Plains. Lower condition scores and persistent scepticism around the 11-15 day rainfall forecasts underpinned the rally, with the market finding further support as midday forecasts reduced expected rainfall.
The new development weighing on sentiment is a forecast temperature plunge Friday night across the northern half of the southern plains, with potentially sub-freezing readings possible in parts of Nebraska, Colorado and Kansas.
Private estimates for HRW production are now being trimmed, with the range settling between 615 and 650 million bushels, though there remains time for conditions to improve. Paris Matif was flat on the day, with Russian cash assessed at $238.50.
Of note, the Russian ruble remains extraordinarily weak, and Matif wheat may have encountered feed competition with maize trading €10/t over wheat.
IKAR revised its April Russian wheat export estimate down to 3.8-4.2 million tonnes (Mt).
France’s farm ministry slightly trimmed its winter soft wheat area estimate to 4.58 million hectares, though this remains 2.7 percent above last year.
Argus cut its Ukraine 2026 wheat crop forecast to 23.5Mt from 23.9Mt, though this still sits above the 4-year average of 22Mt.
Algeria issued a tender for 50,000 tonnes of durum wheat for May-June shipment .

Other grains and oilseeds: Corn+2.75c, Soybeans -4.25c, Matif Canola -2.50
Corn had a constructive session, with the nearby contract testing the 200-day moving average before settling up 2.75c, while the December contract slipped fractionally.
Demand remains the dominant story, with the USDA announcing 316,000 tonnes of corn sales to Mexico spread across three marketing years, alongside 120,000 tonnes to unknown destinations. The multi-year nature of the Mexican purchase points to buyer concern that war-related fertiliser supply reductions could push corn prices higher in coming years.
CONAB raised its Brazilian corn estimate to 139.6 Mt from 138.3Mt, well above the USDA’s 132Mt figure.
Argentine FOB offers are drifting lower while the US Pacific Northwest remains the best value landed into Asia. Despite the strong demand backdrop, crude oil’s near 7pc decline limited upside in corn.
The oilseed complex took a step back. Soybeans lost 4.25c, soybean meal fell $2.20 and bean oil slipped 6 points, leaving May crush down 1.25c at 298.25.
CONAB raised its Brazilian soybean estimate to 179.15Mt from 177.85Mt, broadly in line with analyst expectations. US planting at 6pc complete versus a 2pc average provided a bearish surprise, adding pressure to new crop.
Argentine product offers were more aggressive than recent sessions.
China’s March soybean imports of 4.02Mt were up 15pc on the year but well below expectations and down 33pc from February, with tougher inspections on Brazilian shipments cited as a key factor.
Markets remain in a wait-and-see mode on any Trump-Xi summit progress.
Canola futures faded as crude oil weakness and losses in palm oil and Matif rapeseed weighed, though analysts noted canola is approaching support levels with a seasonal tendency to move higher at this time of year.
Malaysia announced plans to raise its biodiesel mandate to B15 from B10 .

Macro: AUD flat, Dow +317.74, Crude -7.80
Crude oil fell sharply, down nearly 7pc to around $91-92 per barrel, on optimism surrounding a potential second round of US-Iran peace talks. Negotiating teams are looking to reconvene in Pakistan before the April 7 ceasefire formally expires, with Trump saying a deal could come within days. Iran is also reportedly considering a short-term pause in oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to avoid confrontation with the US navy and keep diplomacy alive.
Despite the futures market move, physical crude markets remain severely stressed, with Dated Brent still trading above $120 per barrel. Analysts estimate roughly 10 million barrels per day of Persian Gulf supply has been effectively removed from the market, with only a tiered recovery of 2-3 million barrels per day expected in the near term even under an optimistic scenario.
The Dow rose sharply, with equity markets buoyed by peace talk optimism, pushing the S&P 500 close to a record.
The US dollar continued to weaken, with its wartime rally now fully unwound on a trade-weighted basis, reflecting mounting concern over the US fiscal trajectory. NATO allies confirmed they would not participate in the Hormuz blockade.
The IMF warned that a prolonged closure of the strait could trigger the global economy’s third recession this century, urging governments to avoid untargeted cost-of-living measures that risk stoking inflation.
The RBA deputy governor described the oil price shock as the central banker’s nightmare, with inflation rising and activity falling.
Australian consumer and business confidence are near historic lows, with Treasurer Chalmers travelling to Washington for G20 and IMF meetings.
ECB president Lagarde reiterated a data-dependent, wait-and-see approach, saying there is no tightening bias and that conditions for a policy response have not yet been met. BoE committee members similarly acknowledged the difficult balance between upside inflation and downside growth risks.

Local: Through the west of the country bids were firmer for canola yesterday, A$775/t current season and $816 new, wheat was $332 and $358, barley $336 and $332 FIS Albany.
In the east canola was $750 for current and $785 new, wheat $334 and $365, barley $315 and $322 track Geelong.
Theres no stopping this northern market with prompt wheat around $430 and barley $425, new crop similar levels, the grain is there but growers aren’t selling — not sure when they will start, maybe the 1st July?
Little reprieve likely for NSW and Qld over the next 10 days with no rainfall forecast, helping keep domestic markets well bid.
Livestock markets remain firm with lambs trading ~$10.80–$11.80/kg cwt and mutton around $8/kg, supported by a short-term supply gap, although early signs of processor pullback suggest demand could ease as margins tighten.