Weather: Cold temps through KS and NE are largely being downplayed – but some models are showing -2°C for Friday/Sat. Just another reason we think US wheat yields are being over stated today.
Not necessarily weather but there is more focus today around corn economics and the cost of fertiliser impacting yield and area.
Still nothing for NNSW/Qld.

Markets

Do you place a trading strategy around Truth Social posts? The fact Don is getting excited to see Xi and has flagged how positive he is about his upcoming visit is pretty significant, but also has an outside chance of being complete rubbish. Some vessels are getting through – just not sure how painful the US being involved in the blockade is.

Day Ahead – Australia

Massive carry over in the south, large carry over in the north yet a terrible outlook, an absent export bid, firming AUD, US/China visit, Carlton v Collingwood – just so much to look at and such a mix of drivers that probably means liquidity stays pretty flat.

Source: Bloomberg – Strait of Hormuz Commercial Cargo Ship Crossings

Global wheat: Chicago May: +1.75c | Kansas City May: +2.75c | Matif May: -€1.50
Wheat markets had a lower start but finished at the top end of their ranges after digesting early gains through much of the session before climbing back strongly.
Russian cash was unchanged at US$238.50/t.
The HRW forecast continues to frustrate, with the best rain potential confined to the eastern third of the region and the greatest chances sitting outside the 10-day window, giving markets very little confidence. Private forecasters have been showing rain in the 11-15 day period since November only for moisture to consistently fail to materialise as the window approaches. There was also some SRW weather chatter around conditions being too wet, though it is considered too early in the season for that to be a significant concern, with quality impacts from excess moisture more relevant later in the season.
Some optimism circulated around potential CCC wheat business and the idea of discounted rail.
Weekly export sales tomorrow are expected at 150k old crop and 150k new crop.
On the supply side, Russia’s grain exports may exceed 60 million tonnes (Mt) this marketing season after the government added 5Mt to the export quota as demand picks up, with seaborne grain exports jumping to 5.1Mt in March, up 113.7pc year-on-year, though cumulative season exports remain 8.8pc below the prior year.
FranceAgriMer held its French soft wheat export forecast outside the EU unchanged at 7.10Mt while raising intra-EU shipment forecasts slightly and trimming ending stocks.
Germany’s 2026 wheat crop is forecast to fall 3.3pc year-on-year to 22.38Mt, with the DRV also warning that disruption to fertiliser supplies from the Iran conflict could weigh on quality through lower protein content.
A cold temperature event is expected across HRW country this weekend, with private forecasters downplaying the risk, though the market remains sceptical given their recent track record.

Other grains and oilseeds: Corn May: +8.25c | Soybeans May: +8.25c | Matif Canola: firmer on Middle East war premium.
Corn broke out of a period of technical lethargy in decisive fashion, with May slicing through and settling above its 50, 100 and 200-day moving averages. Initial managed money liquidation was seen when key levels were first breached and offers repeatedly appeared near the 200-day, but ultimately the dam broke and technical followers piled in. There is nothing fundamentally wrong with corn, with demand intact and risk premium being sought ahead of the growing season.
A key catalyst was a Truth Social post from President Trump confirming a trip to China next month, stating China was not supplying Iran with weapons, that the Strait of Hormuz would soon be open and that he intended to embrace Xi, with some in the market believing a Trump-Xi meeting could give US corn an inside track to Chinese demand.
Corn export sales tomorrow are expected at 1.3Mt old crop plus 75k new crop. Ethanol production came in at 1,120k barrels per day versus trade ideas of 1,086k, with stocks rising to 26.699 million barrels against estimates of 25.995 million.
France’s corn planted area may shrink 10pc as farmers shift to less fertiliser-intensive crops.
Soybeans rallied alongside corn on the Trump post, with May beans up 8.25c, meal up $4.70 and bean oil up 116 points, leaving May crush up 14 cents to 312.25c. NOPA March crush came in light at 226.1 million bushels versus trade ideas of 229.9 million, with oil stocks also below expectations at 2,038 versus 2,173 anticipated, with the shortfall attributed to stronger bio-mandate driven usage.
Old crop export expectations tomorrow are 400k beans, 450k meal and 2k oil.
The key outstanding question is whether China returns for more old crop US beans.
On canola, more than just the Middle East war is driving ICE Canada futures. Liquidation of the nearby May contract has been a significant feature, with commodity funds still holding substantial length in that contract while trade focus has shifted to July.
Canada’s canola export program is under scrutiny, particularly regarding China, which returned to the market following earlier tariffs but has displaced other buyers rather than adding incremental demand. Shipments to the EU, Pakistan, Bangladesh and the UAE have slowed as China absorbs available export capacity. Canada’s canola carryover for 2025-26 is projected at 2.76Mt versus 1.6Mt the prior year, with the export program expected to fall to 8.2Mt from 9.33Mt.
The Middle East war premium in canola is expected to persist as long as the conflict continues.

Macro: AUD steady | Dow: higher on peace hopes | Crude: supported by Hormuz tensions.
The dominant macro theme remains the Iran conflict and its implications across energy, fertiliser and trade flows. US forces have imposed a blockade on vessels calling at Iranian ports, with the sanctioned tanker Rich Starry turned back at the Strait of Hormuz.
President Trump signalled that talks with Iran could resume and produce a deal quickly, telling media to watch for an “amazing two days”, though the ceasefire is due to expire on April 21.
The Strait of Hormuz blockade is creating significant pressure on Middle Eastern oil exporters including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, who face the prospect of paying tolls or financing alternative pipeline infrastructure to move their exports.
Urea prices have surged dramatically as a result of the conflict, with offers near $1,000/t in an Indian tender compared to pre-war levels of around $490/t, with only 19pc of US southern state farmers having pre-booked fertiliser needs versus 67pc in the Midwest, and roughly three quarters of southern farmers unable to afford all needed inputs for 2026.
On the trade front, Trump’s planned May 14-15 visit to China, accompanied by his son Eric, lifted sentiment across risk assets.
Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated tariffs could be restored to pre-Supreme Court levels by early July following the court’s earlier ruling against certain levies, with a refund system for $166billion in struck-down tariffs set to launch next Monday.
US-European relations remain strained over the Iran conflict handling, with European officials privately conceding the break is unlikely to be permanent but that it will be up to Trump to resolve.
A fire broke out at the Viva oil refinery in Geelong, one of Australia’s two remaining refineries and a supplier of around half of Victoria’s fuel and 10pc of the nation’s supply, with the blaze out of control by early Thursday morning, no injuries reported, and the federal energy minister indicating there would be some impact on petrol production.

Local: WA bids were steady yesterday with canola A$773/t current season and $810 new, wheat was $328 and $358, barley $338 and $332 FIS Albany.
In the east canola was $744 current and $780 new season, wheat $337 and $365, barley $318 and $328 track Geelong.
The Hanwood market continues to strengthen as conditions show no sign of improving through NSW and Qld, with northern markets doing around $90/t of work in recent months; old crop is bid $355 and new crop $365.
Seeding is well underway through WA, SA and Vic, with canola now out of the ground and recent rains helping link the profile through SA and Vic — a far cry from the early-season progress of the last two years.