Weather: Growing confidence in this next rain event locally, including the desperately dry areas of NNSW and Qld.
US conditions fell sharply and now will be dealing with mid the 30s°C right as the wheat tour rolls into Crazy R’s in Goodland.
Pretty much all of the EU will get a drink, so no market driving weather events in the EU or Black Sea region.

Markets
WASDE tonight with the main discussion HRW crop size – most believe that the USDA will put up a 630-type HRW crop number – but the reality is well below this. This is really the main issue in global wheat – the disconnect between the US crop conditions and the global balance sheet.
I’m avoiding my deep desire to talk about the Budget – i really want to… but I’m not going to… until tomorrow.

Day Ahead – Australia

Rain mixed with big premiums to export parity in much of the country create a stalemate. Some of these key events need to come and go before strategy can be locked down, not least of which is the WASDE.
There will be some attention on the Budget but mainly if and how it will affect the AUD. Donald potentially reducing tariffs on imported beef should benefit the Australian exporter but we will wait to see if it is implemented.

Global wheat: Chicago SRW +15.00 (+2.42%), Kansas +10.50 (+1.55%), MATIF +2.25 (+1.04%)
Wheat markets pushed higher across the board on Monday with Chicago the standout performer, the only leg of the complex carrying a net short position and therefore the prime candidate for pre-WASDE short covering. Kansas and Minneapolis also rallied, though Chicago’s outperformance reflected both its positioning and speculation that any Chinese purchases resulting from Trump’s Beijing visit later this week would more likely land in SRW than HRW.
The fundamental backdrop for HRW remains deeply concerning. Winter wheat conditions fell another 3 points on Monday to just 28% good to excellent against trade expectations of 32%, extending a ten-week deterioration from 58% good to excellent and prompting widespread commentary that the USDA’s current HRW production estimate of 629 million bushels is disconnected from reality — most of the market is sitting 30 to 40 million bushels below that figure, raising the prospect of a significant downward revision in tomorrow’s WASDE.
Heat is expected to arrive into the crop shortly, likely accelerating further deterioration.
Weekly wheat inspections of 511,000 tonnes beat all trade estimates and put the seasonal pace 13% ahead of last year.
On the export front, China approved Ukrainian wheat flour imports from May 9, Egypt has collected 2.37 million tonnes of domestically grown wheat in under a month of procurement, and Ukraine’s total grain exports since July 1 are running 16% below the prior year, with wheat shipments specifically down 20%.

Other grains and oilseeds: Corn +4.00 (+0.85%), Soybeans +5.00 (+0.41%), MATIF Canola +3.75 (+0.73%)
Corn closed near its session highs with the July contract up 4 cents and December adding 4.25 cents, underpinned by a confluence of supportive factors.
The Strait of Hormuz remains closed with crude hovering near $98, keeping fertilizer costs elevated and sustaining the bullish narrative around input costs for the next crop.
China optimism added another layer of support with traders eyeing the prospect of a US corn purchase as part of the Trump-Xi summit outcomes.
Spot demand remains firm — the USDA confirmed daily flash sales of 380,000 tonnes to Mexico and 128,000 tonnes to South Korea, while South Korean feedmaker NOFI separately purchased around 200,000 tonnes of corn in private and tender deals on Friday.
Weekly corn inspections of 1.691 million tonnes came in at the low end of estimates but the seasonal pace remains 31% ahead of last year.
Corn planting reached 57% complete versus 55% expected and the five-year average of 52%.
Brazil’s safrinha situation continues to deteriorate with Parana temperatures in the 30s and forecast rains seen as insufficient.
CFTC data showed funds added nearly 62,000 long corn contracts in the week to May 5, building an already sizable position ahead of several potential market-moving events.
Soybeans started the session firmer but gave back the bulk of gains, with July settling up 5 cents after touching 15 cents better early.
Meal added $5.10 and bean oil retreated 58 points leaving July crush unchanged at 312.75.
The China trade story remains the dominant theme for beans, framed as close to an all-or-nothing proposition — the best case requires confirmation of old crop demand and at least 25 million tonnes of new crop purchases.
Chinese soybean imports for April came in at 8.478 million tonnes with year-to-date arrivals up 8.5%.
Weekly bean shipments of 655,000 tonnes were at the high end of estimates but the seasonal pace remains 23% below last year.
Planting reached 49% complete versus the five-year average of 36%.
Sinograin will auction 61,600 tonnes of imported soybeans on May 14. Brazil’s planted soybean area for 2026/27 is projected to grow 1.7% to approximately 50 million hectares.
ICE canola finished lower, weighed down by an extremely large net long that left the market overbought with neither crushers nor funds willing to extend — though the WASDE and crude direction will remain key near-term drivers.
Malaysia palm oil stocks rose a surprise 1.7% in April to 2.31 million tonnes as output surged 18%, the largest monthly increase in a year, while exports slumped.

Macro: AUD flat (+0.04%), Dow +95.31 (+0.19%), Crude +2.65 (+2.78%)
Crude oil led macro sentiment on Monday, rallying around $2.65 to $98.07 after the US rejected an Iranian peace proposal over the weekend and the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire showed immediate signs of strain with both sides accusing the other of violations.
The Strait of Hormuz remains closed and market participants see little prospect of near-term resolution, with the Fed’s latest financial stability report flagging the Iran war and its oil price shock as the top systemic concern.
China’s crude oil imports fell 20% in April to their lowest level since July 2022 as the Hormuz closure chokes supply to the world’s largest importer.
Trump arrives in Beijing on Wednesday with Iran, Taiwan, AI and nuclear weapons on the agenda, and Xi is expected to face pressure to use Chinese influence to push Tehran toward a deal with Washington.
The geopolitical stakes extend beyond commodities — US allies in Europe are bracing for further troop withdrawals after Trump announced the pullback of 5,000 soldiers from Germany, with NATO diplomats anticipating additional drawdowns potentially including Italy.
On the domestic policy front, the Trump administration moved to temporarily reduce beef import tariffs to address record consumer prices, a move that briefly weighed on live cattle futures but had little read-across to grains.
In Australia, the Albanese government is expected to announce the removal of the 50% capital gains tax discount in Tuesday’s federal budget, replacing it with inflation indexation — a change analysts warn would leave Australia with one of the highest effective CGT rates in the developed world and potentially deter investment in growth assets and small business.

Local: The week started steady to slightly firmer in the west of the country with canola $795 and new crop $835, wheat was $345 and $363, barley $342 and $334 FIS Albany.
In the east canola was slightly improved current season $770 and new crop $805, wheat was $340 and $363, barley $316 and $328 track Geelong.
Rain is looking increasingly likely for most of the east coast over the next week, with at least an inch forecast for large parts of Vic, SA and NSW — bring it on.
Feeder cattle markets may be nearing a seasonal low, with southern supply starting to tighten and optimism building around forecast rainfall through Central Australia and NSW. Darling Downs crossbred feeders are now around 440–450c/kg, while Angus feeders continue to command strong premiums above 520c/kg amid solid feedlot demand and improving restocker confidence .