At left, an image of SA’s Upper Yorke Peninsula and Mid and Upper North taken 9 June 2025, with the same region captured on 15 June 2026. Images: DAS

SOUTH Australia’s winter crop is off to its strongest start in years, while Victoria has recorded the largest fortnightly jump in crop establishment nationally.

The insights have come from DAS Grain Intelligence Crop Establishment tracking, which shows 71 percent of SA’s maximum possible winter-crop area is now established.

This compares to just 1.3pc at the same time last year, which brought a late and patchy start to the SA season.

In Vic, establishment has reached 62pc, up from 9.7pc this time last year.

Nationally, 14.7 million hectares (Mha) has reached establishment, or 43.5pc of the current maximum possible winter crop area in Australia.

Thsi figure is almost double the 7.8Mha established by mid-June last year, and is well ahead of the 2020-25 average of 9.5Mha.

DAS defines establishment as detectable plant growth in a paddock, which may be crop, pasture, or weeds, so the headline figures capture all green paddocks.

The area that can be confirmed as crop, based on the pre-sowing weed knockdown signature, is lower: in SA, it is currently around 46pc of the potential cropping area, with much of the remaining green-up not yet separable from pasture.

DAS earth observation lead Sam Atkinson said the latest data confirms the early and extensive break of season across southern Australia is translating into widespread establishment across key grain-growing regions.

“What we are seeing now is that growers are capitalising on the early break to get crops out of the ground at their preferred timing,” Mr Atkinson said.

“A fortnight ago, we saw that South Australia and Victoria were well ahead of average, and that has since accelerated.”

SA’s current season has been one of the most exceptional starts observed by DAS; at 71pc established, it is well ahead of SA’s historical average of 19.5pc for this point in the season, with no close analog in the DAS establishment record dating back to 2018.

Across SA’s major cropping regions, establishment is tracking at unprecedented levels, including: Ceduna 93pc; Streaky Bay 89pc; Karoonda-East Murray 88pc, and southern Mallee 88pc, all many multiples above their long-term averages for mid-June.

Victoria recorded the largest increase of any state over the past fortnight, climbing from 28pc to 62pc establishment.

Strong early-season conditions have driven rapid progress across the Mallee, Wimmera and north-east, with Mildura reaching 80pc establishment, and the northern Grampians 69pc.

“For growers across large parts of South Australia and Victoria, this season is dramatically different to where things stood at the same point last year.”

While crop establishment is only one early indicator of seasonal performance, the latest figures show Australia’s southern grain-producing regions have had an ideal start heading into the looming El Niño.

Slower start in other states

DAS figures reveal an increasingly divided season across Australia’s grainbelt.

While southern regions continue to surge ahead, parts of northern New South Wales and southern Queensland remain well behind normal establishment timing after waiting until late May for opening rain.

Qld remains the only state tracking substantially below its historical pace, with just 13pc of paddocks established, compared to a long-term average of 34pc for this time of year.

Major northern grain-producing districts including Walgett, Moree Plains, Coonamble and Warren in NSW, along with Balonne and Goondiwindi in Qld, remain largely unestablished and are running 20-30 percentage points behind their historical pace.

“The southern grainbelt has benefited enormously from the early break, while the establishment trajectory in districts like Walgett, Moree Plains and Goondiwindi is similar to 2019.”

Across NSW, the crop is seen as 29pc established.

Western Australia is modestly ahead of its 2020-25 average, with 39pc of paddocks established and the state’s seasonal trajectory closely resembling 2025, which delivered record grain production on the back of record planted area and good ripening conditions.

DAS Grain Intelligence is gleaned from satellite imagery, AI, and geospatial analytics to deliver crop area, crop type, yield, production and harvest insights, supported by up to 20 years of historical crop-productivity data.

Source: DAS