Now and then: Barley taken in the same Mallee paddock on June 25 two years apart, in the current season at left, and at right in 2024. Photo: Matt Witney, Dodgshun Medlin

GROWER selling remains thin as markets soften under the pressure of carry-out from last year’s harvest, and brightened prospects for the new crop.

After a reasonably late planting, unseasonably warm weather is seeing crops in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland bounce out of the ground.

In the south also, minimum temperatures remain unusually high for mid-winter, with only one or two light frosts recorded to date.

Yield potential has therefore continued to climb, and growers are selling a load here and there as they hope for a lift in bids, and fear a blow from the declared El Niño come spring.

Table 1: Indicative prices in Australian dollars per tonne.

Northern crops bounce out of ground

Consumer demand remains minimal in the north, with most well covered from volume buying done in the rally ahead of opening rain in mid-May.

Likewise, the grower is in no hurry to quit substantial wheat stocks still held on farm, despite the new financial year rolling around this week.

“It’s dead; the grower’s price ideas and the consumer’s are a long way apart,” one trade source said.

“Most consumers are pretty comfortable with where they are in terms of coverage.”

Planting of winter crop is still taking place on the north-west plains of NSW, but has otherwise finished, and mild conditions have seen crops germinate quickly.

Growers are now looking at top-dressing with product bought in the falling urea market, but are not overdoing it, as they are concerned El Niño could turn off the tap.

However, this week bucked the long-term outlook by delivering some handy falls in northern NSW, including: Gunnedah 30mm; Moree 11mm; Narrabri 24mm; Walgett 48mm.

“If we get to the end of July with this unbelievably warm weather continuing, and it stops raining, the crop could be in trouble; growers are aware of that.”

One trade source said stabilised diesel prices at around their February levels, and well below the peaks seen in intervening months, have encouraged growers to look at delivered prices for grain.

“Some growers were not selling delivered because fuel was so expensive.”

Barley prices have now dropped to just below those for ASW wheat, and may well stay that way, with the north seen as fully planted on barley, but not on wheat.

“Anyone that doesn’t have wheat in by now will hold off for sorghum,” another source said.

New-crop barley traded at $370/t delivered Downs January, and at an inverse to the prompt market, whereas wheat into new-crop slots appears to be trading at carry.

Minimum temperatures for the week to June 30 show the tiny proportion of the grainbelt where temperatures have dropped below zero. Image: Bureau of Meteorology

South’s dream run continues

More rain has fallen in the past week on many paddocks from central NSW to south-west Victoria to South Australia.

In NSW, registrations in the week to 9am today include: Condobolin 28mm; Deniliquin 26mm; Parkes 44mm; Nevertire 49mm; Temora 49mm, and Young 39mm.

In Vic, registrations include: Birchip 35mm; Dimboola 11mm; Nhill 17mm; Ouyen 31mm, and Rupanyup and Woomelang 27mm.

In SA, the rain was equally widespread, and higher registrations include:  Buckleboo 21mm; Clare 16mm; Coulta 38mm; Cummins 27mm; Maitland 26mm; Pinnaroo 18mm, and Snowtown North 19mm.

Pinion Advisory broker Brad Knight said growers have been selling small volumes.

“They’re engaging in a methodical way,” Mr Knight said.

Conditions across much of Vic’s grain-growing area are wet, and even waterlogged in places.

“It’s feeling like a normal winter,” Mr Knight said of the rainfall.

What is out of the ordinary is the warmth, with only one or two light frosts recorded to date in SA and eastern states.

If the Vic and SA crops live up to expectations, most definitely on the cards if they are not impacted by frost or a hot spring, growers will need to turn their attention to shifting some of the on-farm stocks.

Lentils, currently under pressure from what likes being bumper Australian and Canadian crops, and wheat are the holds.

“We think there’s a lot of wheat out there, barley not so much,” one trader said.

The impact of Europe’s fiercely hot June may have an impact on the continent’s and the UK’s malting barley production, which could prove supportive for Australian values.

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