Zaner Ag Hedge USA chief market analyst Karen Braun is a keynote speaker at AGIC 2026. Image: Supplied

A HIGHLIGHT of every Australian Grains Industry Conference is a high-level view of the international market, and this year, as part of the first ever AGIC Week, those insights will come from Zaner Ag Hedge USA chief market analyst Karen Braun.

On only her second visit to Australia, this respected global commentator will be providing her outlook for the global grain and oilseed market, and it’s not all bearish.

This is despite a 2025-26 wheat carry-out forecast for Australia by USDA at 5.61 million tonnes (Mt), and by Lachstock Consulting at a 15-year high of 7.97Mt.

In insights provided to Grain Central ahead of her presentation on July 29, the opening day of AGIC’s two-day conference at Melbourne’s Crown Promenade, Ms Braun indicated that there’s nothing like low prices to cure low prices.

Ongoing geopolitical unrest, a scorching summer in western Europe, a tough season for US wheat, and the El Niño wildcard are all in the mix.

Weather already surprising

Ms Braun said global balance sheets do not warrant any alarms, but a complacent market is also an unprepared one.

“Just look at what happened in Europe; French corn ratings have deteriorated sharply amid drought, and corn prices responded in a big way,” Ms Braun said.

“Europe has re-emerged as a major destination for US corn over the last couple of years, so a drought in France is now influencing markets well beyond Europe.”

Ms Braun said western Europe’s winter cereals and rapeseed have fared better than its summer crops including corn, but will not escape unscathed from the heat.

“Those harvests will still take a hit, especially any of the later-planted stuff.”

Ms Braun said France’s corn crop was still in a very vulnerable stage as adverse weather continues.

“It may be a while before we know what the overall hit to Europe’s corn production will look like.

“These are the types of things that don’t seem like a big deal until, before you know it, European corn futures are at contract highs; the landscape can truly shift in any market in short order.”

Ms Braun said the continued rise in global production generally coincides with a similar increase in demand, and it becomes a problem when those paces mismatch.

“Global grain production in particular far outpaced consumption needs in 2025-26, but the early outlooks for 2026-27 show much slimmer error margins.

“Keep in mind that most major global wheat exporters hit home runs with their crops last year, something that rarely happens simultaneously.”

Not so this year.

“So far in 2026-27, the US has had a  horrible wheat crop, Europe is having late-season wheat concerns, and El Niño and Australian wheat yields don’t traditionally have a friendly relationship.”

Ms Braun said the production landscape was already looking very different in 2026-27 versus 2025-26.

“The biggest crops don’t always mean the lowest prices, because big supplies can lure big demand, which can put a floor on prices.”

Ms Braun said the other catalyst in demand was China, which “fades in and out of prominence in global grain trade every few years”.

“You also have policy-driven demand, particularly on the biofuels front, which has kept vegetable oil prices elevated over the past year or so, and then you have war.

“China, policy and geopolitical tensions are always the greatest source of both surprise and uncertainty.”

Impact of gulf’s closure muted

The US-Iran war may have throttled fertiliser supplies out of the Persian Gulf since March, but Ms Braun said production for crops in the ground appears to have sidestepped a broadside through stocks being on hand, and through opening breaks.

“I think there’s a misconception on where the fertiliser squeeze has the biggest impact, because yield relies on a much wider set of variables, mostly the weather.

“Most US producers secured needs well before the disruption, and I am reading that Australia’s supplies were also adequate heading into this crop year.

“What remains unclear is whether farmers around the world will be able to access as much supply for next year, and this is where planting decisions could shift in regions that rely heavily on imports.”

Ms Braun said while fertiliser prices have come down, trade flows have not normalised.

“Brazil will be a very interesting place to watch because it imports almost all of its fertiliser.

“Analysts are calling for Brazilian soybean area to increase for a 20th consecutive season in 2026-27, but only by a slim margin.

“Will they get the fertiliser they need, or will overall crop area take a breather?

“Regarding decreasing biofuel demand linked with a calming in Middle East tensions, that is certainly on the radar, but many countries have been pushing for the expansion of renewable fuels for years now, long before the Iran situation unfolded.”

Ms Braun said this was particularly the case in countries that have minimal or no refining capacity and rely on imports.

“The quest to be more energy self-sufficient is really one of survival, but things take time, and if oil prices were to come down significantly, I could see a bit of a slowing in the urgency to adopt greater biofuel blends.”

Two weeks to AGIC

Registrations are open for the two-day AGIC conference on July 29-30, this year with the theme Thriving Today, Resilient Tomorrow.

The conference anchors the first ever AGIC Week, which kicks off July 27 and includes industry technical and committee meetings, as well as offering international delegates the chance to visit up-country and port sites, as well as a host of social events.

Ms Braun’s previous trip to Australia was in January 2014, which took in Sydney and Melbourne.

On this visit, Ms Braun is ready to talk grain, and support the nation’s vineyards.

“I don’t have any work commitments outside the conference, so I am 100-percent fully available for the duration of the event and really look forward to meeting new people and having some great discussions.

“I am also looking forward to having a few proper glasses of Australian wine!”

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