Weather:

Some rainfall through Rostov will slow harvest pace
Rain through the north of the Canadian growing belt, dry in the south
The Dakotas running warmer than normal for the next few weeks but the mid west will cool right down.
The US hazard map looks like a Christmas decoration with the southern part of the country hit with storms. This has been one of the highest tornado counts in a long time, particularly through Illinois.

Markets
Big trading ranges, particularly in wheat as both conflicts deepen. Odessa suffered damage yesterday which is another cross in the global supply column. Some suggesting we are removing 5-10 million tonnes (Mt) out of the supply chain given the lack of confidence in a resolution.
Canola is an energy product and an Ag product – both conflicts adding support. Donald’s 30 percent booze and dairy tax hasn’t hit canola yet but we are yet to see how the Canadians will react.

Day Ahead – Australia

East coast canola will be up A$8-10/t today.
Wheat/barley will be a reluctant follower.

Wheat:  A consolidation session after last week’s run, with winter wheat spreads soft and implied vol in WU easing to 39.18 percent from 39.65pc Friday.
Minny played catch-up as spring wheat conditions dropped 5 points to 53pc, worse than the 2-point decline the market had priced, with NOAA’s 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks pointing to continued Plains heat and below-normal precipitation extending as far east as Ohio.
Winter wheat harvest sits at 74pc versus the 71pc five-year average, but inspections came in soft at 214,000t against 250,000 expected, down 29pc year on year.
The BSEA overhang did the heavy lifting on sentiment rather than price: a Russian missile strike sank the Golden Leo off Odesa killing ten, Azov traffic remains minimal with roughly a quarter of Russian wheat exports normally routed through it, and SovEcon’s Andrey Sizov flagged a possible 5-10Mt shortfall in Russian supply if the standoff drags through the back half of the year.
Europe is losing production from the other direction, with Argus cutting French soft wheat to 30.8Mt, down 7.6pc on the year and below the French ministry’s own 32Mt estimate, on a dry spring and summer heatwaves.
Tunisia has a tender out for 75,000t soft milling wheat, offers due Tuesday. SRW Dec26 swap eased to 363.83, down 5.35 or 1.45pc, still up 17.73 or 5.12pc on the week; Matif wheat Dec26 swap firmed to 392.94, up 2.77 or 0.71pc, up 25.43 or 6.92pc on the week — the forward curve continuing to carry the BSEA premium even as prompt month stalled.

Other grains and oilseeds: Beans led the complex with meal out front.
Soymeal spiked $4.10 with September crush dropping 14c to 303.25c, while bean oil slipped fractionally. New-crop daily sales of 264,000t to China and 110,000 to an undisclosed buyer confirmed Friday’s read that China was stepping up, though June soybean imports from the US were still down 20.6pc year on year as buyers work through last year’s delayed purchases; Beijing’s commitment to 25Mt annually through 2028 remains intact following the May Trump-Xi summit.
Bean conditions improved a point to 66pc against 64pc expected, but inspections were thin at 297,000t versus 500,000t anticipated, down 18pc on the year — soil moisture is declining into the window that matters, without the cushion corn got from a wet June.
Corn caught a bid on drier forecasts and a fresh high in French corn, with CZ posting its best close since the start of June; conditions fell a point to 67pc against 66pc expected, inspections of 1.55Mt were in line and up 25pc year on year, and Colombia took 100,000t new crop.
Brazil’s safrinha harvest reached 49pc of area, up from 40pc a week earlier but trailing last year’s 55pc pace per AgRural, while Safras & Mercado lifted Brazil’s 2026/27 soybean estimate to 180.1Mt and corn to 144.96Mt.
EU corn ideas keep sliding toward sub-50Mt, with Ukrainian supply availability into Europe increasingly critical.
Canola printed fresh contract highs, WCE November breaking through C$800 and triggering stop buying as speculators extended net longs, supported by a Prairie heat forecast keeping a weather premium in the market and spillover from the bean rally; palm oil firmed with crude and Dalian oils, though soyoil was the odd one out, softer on the day. Volume ran to 59,956 contracts against 43,130 Friday.
WCE Canola Nov26 swap firmed to 830.80, up 11.14 or 1.36pc; Matif Canola Nov26 swap rose to 919.05, up 10.73 or 1.18pc.

Macro: Brent settled 1.3pc higher at $89.22, its best close since June 11, as the US-Iran conflict entered a tenth straight day of strikes and Trump vowed Tehran would pay for the deaths of three soldiers.
Mediators floated a return to pre-July 9 positions and a possible 10-day ceasefire, but Washington’s stated focus remains punitive, and the Houthis’ threat to blockade Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea export route added a fresh layer of risk on top of an already-stalled Strait of Hormuz, where traffic has fallen back to March-April conflict lows against normal flows of a fifth of global oil and LNG.
US gasoline is back over $4 a gallon. Equities softened into the risk, the S&P off 0.2pc and the Dow down 307.16 points on the day, with megacap earnings from Tesla and Alphabet Wednesday, then Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon the following week, shaping up as the next test for the AI-driven rally.
Trade tensions added another layer after the Trump administration confirmed a fresh 50pc tariff on Canadian alcohol, autos and dairy, effective in 30 days — one of the more severe actions taken against Canada, with potential knock-on support for spring wheat and bean oil depending on Ottawa’s response.
AUD held flat at 0.6998, up 4.16pc on the week.
Elsewhere in the complex: cotton 12.9678, up 0.31pc; live cattle 223.3, up 1.18pc; feeder cattle 346.25, up 2.03pc; lean hogs 101.275, down 0.37pc; cocoa 5520, down 0.23pc; sugar 14.82, down 0.07pc; white sugar 443.5, unchanged; coffee 324.55, up 1.33pc; TSR20 rubber 216.1, up 1.03pc; lumber 646, up 1.73pc.

Local: In the west of the country bids were stronger on canola and wheat, and were a touch softer on barley. New crop bids in Albany PZ were $880 FIS for canola and $846 for GM, wheat $371, and barley $328. Look for 26/27 canola bids to make fresh highs today.
East saw the liquidity vacuum through a dry 8-day forecast. This season has been all about the top and tail – southern growers cutting lentil yields due to extended wet ground – north considering what a crop will look like should it not rain for another month.