Weather:

ECMWF 360hr outlook to Aug 12 shows Australian cropping belt staying largely dry through the front of the run, with meaningful falls confined to the east coast fringe and pockets of the WA/SA coastline. However, there is 10-20mm showing up for NNSW and QLD
France corn temperatures remain well above the 30-year average through the current growth window, red line tracking 5-8°C hotter than normal into early August, with the 16-day forecast showing temps easing back toward the average band
Argentine wheat temperatures spiked sharply above average in mid-July before falling back, and the 16-day forecast has them tracking close to seasonal norms into August
No signs of the earlier extreme volatility repeating in the Argentine profile, forecast path looks comparatively steady

Markets
Chicago wheat mixed, SRW edging higher while Kansas and Minneapolis softer, but all three still down on the week as Black Sea supply disruption dominates: SovEcon cut Russian wheat exports 4.1% to 44.6m tonnes and Ukraine’s Agri Council warned of a bankruptcy wave if Odesa port strikes keep export capacity near 1.7m tonnes a month
Corn and soybeans firmer after USDA crop progress showed good-to-excellent ratings slipping to 63% for both, StoneX framing the drop as expected heat-stress confirmation with rain relief incoming
Canola the standout mover, WCE and Matif both sharply lower, WCE’s break below C$800 triggering technical selling, compounded by crude weakness dragging the whole vegoil complex down
Crude sold off over 4% on US-Iran de-escalation optimism, but equities rallied regardless, Dow up over 1% on the day and week, with Fed decision Wednesday now the key macro focus

Day Ahead – Australia

GTA AGIC today. Lachstock will be hosting a panel so please, pop in if you are around.
Markets will struggle with a lack of offshore direction and the conference taking care of a chunk of the industry.
Great to see some rain in the back end of the forecast for NNSW and southern Qld but we will have to see it move into the 8 day to have any confidence.
Canola will ease a little today with the offshore market.

Wheat:  Chicago found modest support overnight, September futures adding 0.7%, but the weekly ledger remains firmly in the red across all three US contracts.
The Black Sea narrative continues to tighten: SovEcon has cut its Russian 2026/27 wheat export forecast by 4.1% to 44.6m tonnes, with barley exports lowered 5.9% to 3.2m tonnes, citing the ongoing closure of Sea of Azov navigation and soft early-season demand out of Egypt and Turkey.
Hard to envisage a return to normal Black Sea wheat flows while the war continues.
Ukraine’s own export capacity is under separate pressure — the Ukrainian Agri Council has warned Kyiv that Russian strikes on Odesa port infrastructure could force export capacity down to just 1.7m tonnes a month against a 67m tonne seasonal export requirement, calling the current conditions more severe than 2022’s disruption.
Elsewhere, South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee has trimmed its wheat planting estimate to 473,900ha, 8.4% below last season and the smallest area since 1929, as diesel costs and localised flooding curb sowing intentions.

Other grains and oilseeds: Corn led the complex higher after the USDA’s crop progress report showed good-to-excellent ratings falling four points to 63%, with the drop as an expected confirmation of heat stress rather than a surprise, and incoming rainfall should ease pressure through the week.
Soybean conditions eased three points to 63% good-to-excellent alongside it.
Canola told a weaker story: the November WCE contract’s break below the psychologically important C$800 mark on Monday was read as a bearish technical signal, and Tuesday’s follow-through selling took it to a settlement just under its 20-day moving average, with softer crude weighing on the whole vegetable-oil complex as Chicago soyoil, European rapeseed and Malaysian palm all traded lower on US-Iran de-escalation.
Heat warnings across the southern Prairies offered some counterbalance, as did strength in Chicago beans, while volume eased to 59,535 contracts from Monday’s 66,715.

Macro: Crude sold off sharply as diplomatic optimism builds around a resolution to the US-Iran standoff, though the crude-grains correlation that dictated early trade loosened as the session wore on.
Equities shrugged off the energy weakness, with the Dow up over 1% on both the day and the week.
Attention turns to Wednesday’s Fed decision, where Bank of America argues a hike can’t be entirely dismissed and would hand incoming Chair Warsh early inflation-fighting credentials, even as BofA’s base case remains a hold with a couple of hawkish dissents; CME pricing has a hike at just 32% probability, well below BofA’s observation that the Fed has never hiked historically with less than 60% priced in.
AUDUSD was little changed.

Local: In the west, new crop canola is off as much as $50/mt as the world holds its breath, waiting for Donalds next comment.
More cuts to both Russia and the Ukraine export program which should eventually see demand move to Australia.
East coast markets were pretty flat on grains with pockets of short covering still evident.