Weather:

Not much change in the last 24 hours. Australia still set to get a drink with NNSW and Qld still showing rainfall for the 10th through to the 13th of Aug.
Indian monsoon continues to lag although its only about half way through.
US weather looks set to improve over the next 2 weeks with good rains heading through the mid west.

Markets
Soybeans led the complex sharply lower on a wetter, cooler US weather outlook, corn following as traders stripped weather risk premium out of both
Wheat held up relatively better, supported by ongoing Russia-Ukraine port disruption even as the broader grain complex sold off
Canola extended its slide from three-year highs, WCE shedding a further C$11.30 to take the four-day drop to C$67, even as crude corrected higher
Crude spiked over 6% as US-Iran tensions flared again after Trump vowed to strike back hard, while equities sold off on the news and a fractured 9-3 Fed hold

Day Ahead – Australia

GTA AGIC continues – some great pressos yesterday, particularly the Black Sea presentation. The theme was that the grain is there and its already doing to work to find alternative pathways.
Aussie demand for wheat is subjective. There is some evidence that questions are being asked but we haven’t seen any solid business.
The conference continues today – the trade doesn’t need an excuse to sit back at the moment so i expect a quiet day.

Wheat:  Wheat held up better than corn and soybeans on Wednesday as the Russia-Ukraine conflict continued to underpin the complex, with the prospect of an extended shutdown of key export ports is providing support even as the broader grain complex sold off.
Bloomberg reports wheat futures climbing for a second session on faltering Black Sea exports.
Weekly losses remain heavy across the board regardless — SRW down over 6% for the week — despite the scale of the SovEcon export downgrade and Ukrainian port disruption flagged earlier in the weeks.

Other grains and oilseeds: Soybeans led the row-crop complex sharply lower as the weather outlook turned more hospitable, with the Hightower Report pointing to beneficial rains and cooler temperatures moving into the Midwest through the weekend.
Commstock’s Brian Grete noted the absence of any threatening heat in the two-week outlook is prompting traders to strip risk premium out of the market, with technical selling reinforcing the move as prices broke below support and triggered long liquidation.
Corn followed soybeans lower despite the earlier crop-condition concerns.
Canola extended its slide from three-year highs, with CNS Canada’s Lawrence Klusa noting the November contract has now shed C$67 a tonne over four sessions even as crude corrected higher, suggesting the move has become self-sustaining rather than purely energy-led; Klusa still expects farmers to see current levels as attractive for forward sales despite the pullback, with support seen around the June lows of C$730-40.

Macro: Crude spiked over 6% as the US-Iran conflict re-escalated, with Trump vowing the US would strike back hard after an attack on a US base in Jordan; Brent settled near $91 a barrel on an 8% jump, and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut with talks between Iran and Oman having stalled.
Equities sold off sharply in response, the Dow shedding over 2%. The Fed held rates at 3.5%-3.75% in a fractured 9-3 vote, with Logan, Hammack and Kashkari dissenting in favour of a hike; Chair Warsh characterised the tone as “watchful thinking” rather than “watchful waiting” and reaffirmed commitment to the 2% target, with short-end yields falling as markets had priced in higher odds of a hike heading into the decision.

Local: With the majority of the trade at the AGIC confo things have been a little slow.
The rain for the east coast is hanging in, but needs to move into the front of the forecast to give anyone confidence.
Old crop stocks in Vic continue to tighten with more being added to the export path.