Weather:

US Midwest: rain moving through key growing areas, easing prior heat stress; Iowa and Illinois in line for continued rainfall through the week
US 6-10 day outlook: cooling temperatures with precipitation continuing across the Corn Belt.
UK: driest July on record for England and Wales, worst cereal harvest since 1984 comparable records began.
India: cumulative monsoon rainfall 11% below normal as of Aug 5.

Markets
BSEA freight capacity, not price, is now the binding constraint on wheat exports — expect further consumer scrambling into ASO.
Corn under yield pressure ahead of the August WASDE, with StoneX/Informa spread wide enough to keep volatility elevated into the report.
China’s soybean buying is doing the heavy lifting for the complex; crush margins compressing as product markets lag.
Hormuz de-escalation optimism is capping crude and lifting equities, but the Iran-Oman arrangement is being oversold relative to what’s actually been agreed.

Day Ahead – Australia

Mixed bag through the futures markets but, from a Black Sea perspective, things continue to deteriorate. For many of the major endusers, the clock is ticking. While the Algerian business reflected a US$25/t+ rally since June, it does highlight the stark reality that the offer side is a little thinner than they would like.
This is where the domestic Australia trade is faced with a challenging decision. Buy now in anticipation of a firmer export market – or wait for the grower and then decide if there is margin. The balance between consumer needs and shipping delays/premiums is a better driver of Aussie price than US futures.

Wheat:  CBOT wheat firmed but well off session highs as BSEA logistics deteriorate further. Algeria’s OAIC took roughly 720kt for Sep/Oct at $289-289.50 c&f, against $264.50 paid June 17 — a jump reflecting shrinking freight capacity rather than fresh demand.
Cheaper Russian offers went largely unbooked on freight constraints, pushing the tender toward Black Sea (CVB) grain and tightening what’s left for the next buyer.
Rumours of a full Russian port closure tied to the military situation circulated but were never confirmed.
Ukraine’s alternative routes via Constanta won’t reach meaningful capacity until end-August at the earliest, and even then cover only half normal Black Sea throughput.
Russian wheat and barley cash values have fallen 8-14.5 percent since mid-July on the export disruption.
UK harvest is tracking its worst since 1984 after the driest July on record, an estimated 2.5 million tonnes (Mt) off earlier forecasts.
Matif Sep added €2/t, with French wheat sidelined from today’s Algerian business given the ongoing Algeria-France trade friction.
US wheat sales tomorrow expected around 350kt.

Other grains and oilseeds: Corn slid on a bearish StoneX yield call — 184.8 bu/ac vs USDA’s July 183 — with Informa splitting the difference at 182 bu/ac and S&P closer to 181.5 bu/ac.
Rain moving through the Midwest, easing prior heat stress with Iowa and Illinois set for continued precipitation and cooler temps into next week, added to the yield-friendly tone.
Demand offsets were present but not enough: Mexico bought 120kt (30kt 26/27, 90kt 27/28), and 400kt old/950k new crop sales are expected tomorrow.
Beans sold off early on the benign weather and yield backdrop but clawed back into the close on aggressive Chinese buying — 5-6 PNW cargoes and 6-7 USG on the day — leaving Sep crush down 8.75c to 274.25 as product markets continue to lag the bean move; bean oil finding support from import flows, meal capped by production optimism.
Sinograin cleared 67pc of the 501kt soybean cargo offered at its latest auction, clearing space for incoming US cargoes.
Canola rallied despite a weaker soyoil complex and a firmer CAD (+0.3c), with strength likely reflecting the tighter northern-hemisphere wheat/oilseed supply narrative more than domestic drivers.

Macro: Crude stayed heavy as Hormuz reopening odds build: Iran and Oman have reportedly agreed a proposed shipping route through the strait, though Tehran’s own officials caution this is a temporary, partial arrangement covering only 2-4 months and contingent on US conduct, not a full reopening.
Trump continues to talk up an imminent deal. Equities took the optimism at face value, with the Dow through 54,300 to fresh highs.
AUD little changed on the day but holding a firm weekly gain.

Local: Through the west of the country canola eased to A$830/t, with GM holding a $15–20 premium. Wheat was bid $370 and barley $322 FIS Albany.
In the east canola slipped $10 to $780, while wheat softened to $355 and barley was $309 track Geelong.
Southern delivered markets were slightly easier, with Hanwood wheat bid $365, Murray Bridge $340 and Geelong/Melbourne $368 Jan+.
Rain remains in the forecast and is now expected to push further into NSW. It’ll be interesting to see how growers respond, with cereal selling still relatively light across most regions—this could be the trigger for more grain to come to market.