Angus weaners inspect a canola crop growing on a trial site near Greenethorpe on the south-west slopes of NSW. Photo: Justin Kudnig, Pacific Seeds

AUSTRALIA exported 293,832 tonnes of canola in June, down 34 percent from the 443,860t shipped in May, and taking shipments for the first nine months of the marketing year to 4.49 million tonnes (Mt).

This compares with 4.95Mt shipped in the corresponding Oct-Jun period in 2024-25.

For canola shipped in June 2026, China on 120,274t was Australia’s biggest market followed by the United Arab Emirates on 95,934t and Belgium on 58,836t.

For the shipping year which started October 1, Australia’s three biggest canola markets for the first nine months were Belgium on 930,960t, Germany on 681,409t, and China on 596,120t.

In its latest canola supply-and-demand report out August 11, Lachstock Consulting said the global canola and rapeseed balance sheet has tightened over the past month, despite softer futures.

“Canadian yield potential has slipped as record crush and strong exports reduce stocks, while Europe faces lower German production, major logistics issues and sharply reduced Ukrainian seed flows,” the report said.

It points to China becoming a key market for Australian canola.

“A tightening Canadian balance sheet should encourage more Chinese interest in Australian seed, although Australia remains relatively expensive against Northern Hemisphere supply.

“Further upside will likely require more Canadian crop deterioration, continued Black Sea and European logistics problems, stronger Chinese buying or another leg higher in vegetable oils.

“Without those catalysts, a large Australian crop can still pressure basis, but the global balance remains supportive.”

The report points to a Canadian canola balance sheet tightened further by hot and dry weather, which has trimmed yield potential in the face of ongoing strength in crush and export demand.

Canada’s estimated 2026-27 canola exports now stand at 7.6Mt, down from 8.05Mt.

Europe is Australia’s biggest canola market, and a challenging season for its rapeseed crop is supportive of values.

“German production could fall below earlier expectations, while stronger eastern European output may not fully offset the shortfall.”

USDA currently forecasts EU imports at 5.8Mt, with some upside seen.

“Low Rhine and Moselle water levels are severely restricting French seed movements into German crush plants, with barges normally carrying 2500-3000t reportedly limited to only 300-400t.

“Strong rapeseed oil and biofuel demand continues to underpin the market despite harvest pressure.

Ukraine’s larger rapeseed crop has not generated the expected export pressure due to Black Sea logistics being disrupted by the Russia-Ukraine war.

Ukraine’s July rapeseed exports fell to just 19,000t against 143,000t  in July 2025, while EU rapeseed imports from 1 July to 2 August fell to 365,000t from 906,000t in the previous corresponding period.

“Seaborne shipments are effectively suspended, forcing more volume through congested and expensive overland routes.

“Russia provides some offset, with its harvest ahead of last year and planted area higher, although quality issues may limit rapeseed oil exports to China.

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