Weather:

Tornado warning hit Chicago, system tore through IL/IN/OH, no confirmed crop damage. Row crop topsoil moisture down 2 points to 50 percent adequate-to-surplus; rain forecast for central/northern belt this week, hot and dry south/Delta.
Fresh heat alert in Europe — 22 French departments under orange warnings (38-39°C), temps running up to 15°F above normal into Aug. 13, hitting corn, sunflowers, sugar beets.
Danube water levels at record lows on heat, forcing lighter loads on Ukraine’s Constanta rail/river workaround.

Markets
Wheat sold off into WASDE on book-squaring plus a volatile, unconfirmed rumour cycle around a Turkey-brokered BSEA strike moratorium, even as Russian and Ukrainian export data keep deteriorating (Sovecon, Grain Union, ProZerno, Ukraine’s own ministry all trending lower)
Corn and beans stayed close to the rest ahead of the report, with beans pressured by rain and a soft crush, while China and the Philippines both showed up on the sales tape in a move that reads as pre-WASDE positioning.
Canola fell back through its 20-day moving average on spillover weakness from Chicago soyoil and beans rather than any change to a still-favourable Western Canadian crop outlook.
RBA held rates at 4.35pc with a hawkish tone, keeping a small chance of a November hike alive, while crude firmed on Hormuz optimism that’s being complicated by Trump’s compensation demands on Iran.

Day Ahead – Australia

OK, this is a news wire, not an opinion piece… however….
Rumours that the Black Sea can reach an agreement on what is fair game to bomb or not seems a little of a stretch to me. Yes, they both want to generate revenue so there is a common goal, but they are at war – and gloves are off. Additionally, even if vessels start to flow I can’t see an insurance company reducing premiums any time soon. So yes, maybe grain flows but Australia’s freight advantage into South East Asia still puts us in the slot.
Aussie values will be lower with the offshore and recent rainfall.

Chart above shows Australian freight advantage over Russia into Indonesia.

Wheat:  Wheat sold off into WASDE on a genuine rumour mill rather than fresh fundamentals.
Book-squaring ahead of tomorrow’s report was the baseline driver but the session’s real volatility came from chatter that Turkey had brokered a moratorium on BSEA grain-infrastructure strikes — pressure that built through the day, got partially walked back on contradicting battlefield chatter, then resurfaced thirty minutes from the close via an unconfirmed Turkish government source describing closed-door talks, with no official confirmation from any wire.
WU implied vol actually eased to 31.29pc from 31.62pc, suggesting the market isn’t paying up for the headline risk despite the price action.
Underneath the noise, the BSEA supply picture keeps deteriorating: Sovecon’s Andrey Sizov puts August Russian wheat exports at 3-3.4 million tonnes (Mt), down from 4.5Mt a year ago and the lowest for the month since 2016/17, citing harvest delays, weak prices and Kerch Strait/Sea of Azov shipping disruption.
Ukraine is compounding the story: Kyiv cut its 2026/27 grain export forecast to 38-40Mt from 43Mt on Odesa port attacks, and its Ag Ministry took wheat exports down hard to 8.3Mt from 17.6Mt — a cut the USDA attaché only partially validated at 10.8Mt, still a meaningful downgrade.
Ukraine is now reportedly shopping Moldovan rail routes as a workaround.
On the demand side the EU’s soft-wheat pace is soft too, 1Mt into the new season versus 2.4Mt a year ago. Matif eased in sympathy, and the swap curve reflects the same defensive positioning as spot.
Into tomorrow’s WASDE the setup is straightforward: expect the spring wheat crop trimmed, and the real debate is how far USDA is willing to follow BSEA flows lower — global wheat trade is already tracking 13Mt below year-ago, concentrated in MENA.

Other grains and oilseeds: Corn traded as wheat’s shadow, capped by report caution more than conviction — CU down just 1.5c and CZ 1.25c despite a tornado warning that emptied parts of Chicago, with the system tearing through Illinois, Indiana and Ohio in an echo of the 2020 derecho, if less destructive.
USDA’s crop progress kept good-to-excellent corn steady at 61pc, soybeans off a point to 62pc, with topsoil moisture down two points to 50pc adequate-to-surplus.
Beans gave back ground on widespread rain, and products were mixed to soft: bean oil surrendered nearly all of Monday’s gains despite firmer diesel, meal parked itself ahead of the number, and Sep crush fell 1.5c to 273.75c.
China and the Philippines both showed up on the tape — 136,000t 26/27 beans and 180,000t 26/27 meal respectively — which reads as position-squaring ahead of WASDE rather than a demand signal shift; most desks are already comfortable with 25Mt for Chinese bean imports from the US in their balance sheets.
Canola took its lead from the soy complex, falling back through its 20-day moving average on chart-driven selling as CBOT soyoil weakness spilled over; crop conditions across Western Canada remain constructive with moderate temperatures and scattered showers forecast through the week, so this was a risk-off/technical move rather than a supply story, and it hasn’t dented the firm weekly trend.
Palm oil bucked the complex, up on Dalian strength as traders weigh El Niño production risk against near-record global inventories — the FAO’s broader point that yield gains have kept the food system more resilient to El Niño events than in past cycles is worth flagging as context, not a trading signal for tomorrow.
Elsewhere, India’s rice/pulse/corn planting is lagging last year with monsoon rainfall running 12pc below normal, a slow-burn Asian feed-grain story rather than a WASDE input.

Macro: The RBA held the cash rate at 4.35pc, unanimous, and the accompanying statement read hawkish on inflation in its closing paragraphs — consistent with Governor Bullock’s recent Anika Foundation remarks rather than a dovish pivot.
Staff are forecasting trimmed mean inflation averaging 0.8pc q/q across Q3 and Q4, with an end-point of 2.4pc, though the monthly trimmed-mean trend points to upside risk in the Q3 print; the Board likely has some tolerance for a small miss given where the end point sits.
Labour market conditions are still described as “a little tight” with no spare capacity emerging. Base case remains that the cash rate has peaked, but a November hike stays live if activity data doesn’t soften as expected — AUDUSD is sitting on the fence rather than pricing a clean outcome either way.
Crude firmed on Hormuz optimism after Pakistan’s defence minister said the US and Iran were “close to some sort of arrangement,” with Al Jazeera separately reporting advanced Iran-Oman talks on partial reopening — though Trump’s weekend demand for Iranian war-related compensation complicates that read and keeps the two-sided rumour risk alive into WASDE, much like the BSEA headline flow hitting wheat.
Equities were soft into the report, the Dow off 184 points, consistent with broader risk being pared back ahead of tomorrow’s number rather than any fresh catalyst.

Local: Canola was firmer to start the week in the west, bid at A$857 with GM at $840. Wheat was $376 and barley $319 for 2026/27 FIS Albany.
In the east, bids were firmer to steady, with canola +$5 to $804, wheat at $356 and barley $305 track Geelong.
Delivered barley markets were softer to start the week following the good rainfall. SA Murraylands markets are around $290–295 Jan+, Geelong/Melbourne $325 and the Downs $415.
Canola markets have staged a comeback over the past week and are expected to strengthen again today following gains across global oilseeds. Given current values relative to cereals, growers are likely to be willing cash sellers through harvest, and with the size of the crop expected this season, domestic harvest pressure remains a key risk.