Weather:

The Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour kicked off Monday out of South Dakota and Ohio, with early scouting reports showing corn ears tracking thick and well past pollination, particularly on the eastern leg.
Excessive rain through parts of the eastern Corn Belt remains a lingering concern for scouts assessing final yield potential this week.
Canadian Prairie canola harvest has yet to begin, with crop disease pressure across canola, cereal and pulse crops flagged as a developing issue to monitor into September.
The tour continues Tuesday through eastern Nebraska and eastern Illinois, with fuller yield colour expected as the week progresses.

Markets
Grain and oilseed markets took their cues from a mix of crop tour optimism and escalating Middle East risk, with crude’s surge doing more to move sentiment than any single domestic data point.
Soybeans and corn firmed on strong early tour reads and solid export demand, while wheat consolidated after last week’s Black Sea-driven rally ran into profit-taking.
Canola was the standout performer, extending a third straight session of gains on firm old-crop export pace and a supportive vegoil complex.
Equities and broader risk sentiment softened as the Iran truce lapse and Hormuz tensions added a fresh layer of uncertainty heading into the back half of the week.

Day Ahead – Australia

More of the same today – Canola providing good margin for growers that can get it over the line – not the case for some in the Albany port zone which has had a tough run this year
This rain event looks amazing for NSW and, dare I say it, for the northern part of the state. Yes this will help with winter crop but growers will welcome moisture for sorghum/cotton planting.
AUD the sunny side of 0.7100 – rate increase in the US has moved from 96 percent in Dec meeting to 65pc which has helped give the AUD a leg up.

Wheat:  Chicago wheat gave back a touch of last week’s gains as longs booked profits into resistance, even as Black Sea strikes continued through the weekend and the port-blockade risk premium stayed embedded in the curve.
Kansas and Minneapolis outperformed the soft red contract, a split that speaks more to protein and quality demand than to a broad directional shift.
Matif eased in step with the weaker swap curve, while ASX ticked higher, tracking the firmer global tone rather than any fresh domestic driver.
Net, the wheat complex looks to be consolidating near recent highs rather than reversing, with geopolitical headline risk still the dominant swing factor into the new week.

Other grains and oilseeds: Soybeans led the complex higher as the Pro Farmer Crop Tour got underway, with early ear and pod counts out of Ohio and South Dakota running strong and export inspections holding well above year-ago pace.
Crush data came in above June but shy of trade expectations, with biofuel-linked demand still doing the heavy lifting under soy oil.
Corn firmed despite AgResource trimming its national yield view on the back of lighter nitrogen application, a margin-driven cut rather than a weather one.
Canola extended its rally for a third session, underpinned by a sharp step-up in old-crop export pace reported by the Canadian Grain Commission and a firmer crude-linked vegoil tone; the November contract is now trading more than C$34 above its 20-day average, with the Prairie harvest yet to start and crop disease reports adding a watch item rather than an immediate supply threat.
Livestock stayed on the back foot, with cattle and hogs still working off last week’s weakness.

Macro: Crude extended its rally as the US-Iran truce lapsed and Trump ruled out an extension, with Hormuz tensions and fresh threats directed at Oman keeping the geopolitical premium bid; Brent’s move toward $91 is now running close to 8% higher on the week.
Equities took the other side of that trade, with the Dow softer as the conflict backdrop weighed on risk appetite.
AUDUSD was little changed, holding its recent range as commodity strength offset broader risk-off positioning elsewhere.

Local: A strong start to the week with canola +$10 in the east to $828 and GM $786, wheat $363 and barley $306 track Geelong for 2026/27. – In the west bids were also stronger, with canola $880, GM $870, wheat $382 and barley $328 FIS Albany.
A little more grower engagement on new crop sales over the past week following good rains, with canola and wheat the preferred sales at current values.
Feeder cattle grids continue to ease as supply builds and processors face a tougher meat market, with Darling Downs flatbacks now 490–510c/kg, down 20–30c/kg over the past fortnight. Further rain across SA, Victoria and the Riverina should support feed availability and may slow cattle movement.