Missouri grower 3H Harvesting has had an early start to its corn harvest. Photo: 3H Harvesting, Milo

TWELVE months on from the hugely bearish shock of the United States Department of Agriculture World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates’ August 2025 record US corn yield projection, the latest had a more bullish market tone for corn when released last week, while the wheat and soybean numbers were considered neutral to mildly bearish.

While Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) models in the US had been showing above-trendline corn yields, the crop ratings leading into the report were well below those of August 2025, leading the USDA to reduce the US corn yield from 11.49 tonnes per hectare to 11.34t/ha. This compares to last year’s August estimate of a record 11.85t/ha and the final yield estimate for the 2025 harvest of 11.71t/ha.

Countering the US new crop yield reduction was a 1.0 percent increase in the harvested area projection to 39.1 million hectares, with the wash-up being US production of 406.4 million tonnes (Mt), 6pc lower than the 432.3Mt harvested last year.

Globally, 2026-27 corn production was increased by 1.8Mt to 1298.9Mt compared to the July report, but this is still 2.3pc lower than the USDA’s current 2025-26 production number of 1,329.9Mt. While production in the South American powerhouses of Brazil and Argentina was unchanged at 139Mt and 55Mt respectively, Black Sea output was increased.

Corn regions mixed

The Russian corn crop was increased from 15.8Mt to a record 17.2Mt, 16pc higher than the 2025 harvest, on the back of above-average rainfall through spring and early summer. The Russian yield forecast of 6.98t/ha is 8.9pc higher month on month, and 7pc above last year. The harvested area forecast of 2.5 million hectares is up from 2.3Mha last year. The Ukraine crop was also increased by 1.8Mt to 31.8Mt compared to last month’s report, due in total to a 6pc increase in the planted area.

However, this season’s corn crop in the European Union continues to suffer from extremely hot and dry weather conditions in many key production regions, accelerating plant development through the critical flowering, dough, and denting growth stages. The production forecast of 50.2Mt is down 6.7pc from the July report, 11.6pc less than last year, more than 17pc below the five-year average, and the smallest EU crop since the 2007-08 season. The harvested area projection of 7.5Mha is the lowest in the EU since the 1990-91 season.

On the demand side of the equation, the USDA increased global consumption by 2.6Mt compared to the July report. The main changes were Brazil up by 2Mt to 100Mt, Russia up by 1Mt to 12.7Mt and the European Union 1.4Mt lower at 73Mt. Global trade was pencilled in at 210.5Mt, up from 209.9Mt a month earlier, but down from 220.7Mt in the 2025-26 marketing year.

Soybean supply, demand lifts

The USDA pegged worldwide soybean output at a record 442.3Mt, up from 441.7Mt a month earlier, and 12.8Mt higher than the previous global production benchmark of 429.5Mt set last season. The US crop estimate of 123Mt is 1.2Mt higher month-on-month, on the back of a 1.7pc increase to the harvested area projection, and 7Mt higher than last season’s output.

The crop in Brazil, the world’s biggest producer, continues to grow each season with 2026-27 output pegged at a record 186Mt, comfortably surpassing last year’s benchmark of 180.5Mt. To the south in Argentina, this year’s harvest is expected to finish at 50Mt, unchanged compared to July and up from 49.5Mt in 2025-26.

Global soybean consumption is expected to be 442.0Mt in 2026-27, very similar to the July forecast, but up from 430.3Mt in 2025-26. China remains the biggest global consumer at 136Mt, up 2.1Mt season on season, while Brazilian demand of 69.6Mt continues to rise as domestic crush capacity grows.

International soybean trade in the 2026-27 marketing year is estimated at 190.4Mt, up from 187.2Mt last season. Brazil and the US dominate the export side of the equation with 118Mt and 45.2Mt, respectively, while China accounts for 60.8pc of global imports with a 2026-27 forecast of 115Mt.

Wheat major exporter reduction; MENA, India brighter

Worldwide wheat production is expected to decline year on year with the USDA landing on 819.3Mt in last week’s report. This was trimmed by just 700,000t compared to a month earlier, but is 24.1Mt, or 2.9pc less than global output in 2025-26.

Compared to the July report, this year’s harvest was raised by 1.4Mt to 25.4Mt in Ukraine and by 1Mt in Canada to 35Mt. The Kazakhstan crop was also increased by 1Mt to 16Mt, with the yield forecast 6.4pc higher compared to July due to favourable weather conditions across the major grain-producing oblasts.

EU wheat output was decreased by 1.8Mt to 134.2Mt as heatwave conditions manifest in lower yields. The harvest in Brazil was also clipped by 600,000t to 6.1Mt, 9pc less than last month, 22.5pc lower than last year and 28.0pc below the five-year average.

The major changes compared to the 2025-26 harvest are a 9Mt reduction in the Australian crop to 28Mt, a 6.9Mt decrease from a record 27.9Mt in Argentina, a 5Mt drop from a record 40Mt in Canada, a 3.3Mt reduction from a record 19.3Mt in Kazakhstan, a 10.9Mt fall in EU output and a 12.3Mt drop in the US harvest. This is countered by a projected 5.7Mt increase across the North African nations bordering the Mediterranean Sea, a 3.9Mt increase across the Middle East, and a 3Mt increase in Indian output.

The international wheat consumption estimate of 826.3Mt for the 2026-27 marketing year is unchanged compared to July but 2.7Mt higher than the previous corresponding period. Demand across the EU-27 was increased by 1Mt, while wheat use in Bangladesh was pruned by 700,000t for some reason.

Global wheat exports were raised by just 300,000t to 212.7Mt in last week’s update. However, this is 13.6Mt less than the 2025-26 campaign, with the Argentinian program reduced by 4.1Mt, the US forecast 3.6Mt lower, Australia decreased by 2.5Mt, and Canada cut by 1.1Mt, all on the back of lower supply.

The USDA appears to have taken a lazy approach to the escalating Black Sea situation, pruning Russian and Ukrainian exports by 1.5Mt and 1Mt, respectively. Collectively, this is less than the shipping capacity already shed in the first six weeks of the 2026-27 marketing year and leaves a seemingly impossible combined program of 59.5Mt in 2026-27, just 2.6Mt less than last season.