AUSTRALIA exported 1,989,145 tonnes of wheat, including durum, in July, up from 1,495,830t shipped in June, according to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

In containerised shipments for July, Thailand on 20,386t, followed by Taiwan on 18,255t and Malaysia on 17,096t were the three biggest markets.

In bulk, The Philippines on 542,586t followed by Indonesia on 275,763t and South Korea on 197,957t were the leaders for the month.

The July total figure is up 33 percent from June to buck the trend normally seen when new-crop Northern Hemisphere wheat hits the market.

In its latest supply-and-demand report for wheat released September 4, Lachstock Consulting said the wheat market has shifted quickly from a production story to a logistics and demand story, and Australia is entering that market with a sizeable crop.

Lachstock estimates Australia’s wheat crop, now in the early stages of harvest in Central Queensland, will produce 30.7 million tonnes (Mt), with near-record production possible through South Australia and Victoria.

“That large southern crop should create harvest pressure, but Black Sea export disruption is providing an important release valve, forcing global buyers to chase alternative tonnes and putting Australian exporters firmly back in the market,” the report said.

“Interstate flows from NSW into Victoria are already increasing, container opportunities are improving and protein spreads are widening, while well-covered domestic consumers have stepped back.

“The result is an increasingly clear divergence between export and domestic pricing: Australia has plenty of wheat coming, but for the first time in several years, exporters rather than domestic buyers are driving the bus.”

The report points to ample wheat stocks sitting in Russia and Ukraine, but exports being constrained by damage to Russian infrastructure, and shipping difficulties out of the Sea of Azov as well as the Black Sea.

“Trade estimates suggest [Russia’s] August exports were only around 2Mt, while September shipments could fall to roughly 1.8–2.3Mt, less than half last year’s level.”

“If logistics improve, a large volume of cheap wheat could quickly return to the export market, making Russia both the biggest bullish factor today and potentially the biggest bearish factor later.

“Ukraine…remains another potentially bearish weight hanging over the market — there is wheat that needs to be sold — but until export capacity improves, those tonnes aren’t doing much to satisfy nearby global demand.”

Table 1: Australian containerised wheat and durum exports for May, June and July 2026. Source: ABS

Table 2: Australian bulk wheat and durum exports for May, June and July 2026. Source: ABS

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