Trial plantings of winter malting barley and wheat at a Stamp Seeds event at Taber, Alberta late last month. Photo: SeedNet

STATISTICS Canada updated this season’s planted area estimates for the nation’s principal field crops last Friday, with grain growers reporting an increase in wheat, oats, soybeans, lentils, corn and dry pea seeding in 2025, but a decrease in the area allocated to canola and barley.

Rapid seeding progress

Canadian farmers faced ideal planting conditions with warm and dry weather experienced across much of western Canada after sowing commenced in late April. Seeding reportedly progressed ahead of the five and 10-year averages for all three Prairie provinces, with a majority of the 2025 program completed before the end of May.

However, while the vegetative health of the Prairies crops is currently better than the same date in either of the past two seasons, the lack of rain and poor soil moisture remains a concern for grain producers in many regions. In the eastern provinces of Ontario and Quebec, temperatures were at or below normal early in the growing season and precipitation was above average, but the cool and wet conditions did result in seeding delays in some districts.

The June 2025 Field Crop Survey, which collects information on field crop seeded areas in Canada, was conducted between May 15 and June 12, 2025, and included approximately 25,000 individual farms. Respondents were asked to report their seeded areas of grain, oilseeds and special crops.

Mixed drivers clip canola

Despite ongoing trade issues with the United States and China, as well as increasing soil-moisture concerns, domestic grain merchants had reportedly been expecting the rally in canola futures leading into and throughout this year’s planting window to encourage an increase in the canola area in 2025.

However, when the numbers were revealed, the allocation of 8.68 million hectares (Mha) was 2.5 percent lower than last year’s area of 8.91Mha and 2.9pc below the 8.94Mha planted in 2023. In Saskatchewan, where more than half the nation’s canola is grown, farmers reported a year-on-year decrease in seeding of 0.5pc to 4.86Mha. In Alberta, the survey results revealed a planted area decline of 2.8pc to 2.51Mha, while in Manitoba, the seeded expanse of 1.21Mha is down 9.2pc compared to 2024.

Assuming 99pc of the planted area is eventually harvested pegs production in 2025 at 17.8 million tonnes (Mt), compared to a harvest of 17.85Mt last year and 19.19Mt in 2023. This was determined by adopting the canola yield forecast of 2.07t/ha from the latest Outlook for Principal Field Crops report, which was released on June 20. The report assumes normal growing conditions for the balance of the season.

Wheat ups and downs

Canadian farmers reported a total wheat area of 10.91Mha this season, 1pc higher than the 2024 area of 10.78Mha but 0.2pc less than the 10.92Mha sown in 2023. Spring wheat is the largest component of the wheat area each season, and it fell to 7.61Mha, compared to 7.67Mha and 7.89Mha in 2024 and 2023 respectively. Conversely, durum seedings increased 2.6pc to 2.64Mha, as did the winter wheat area, which was planted last autumn and came in 18.2pc higher at 750,000ha.

Saskatchewan farmers reported total wheat plantings of 5.67Mha, 1.1pc lower than last year, with spring wheat down and durum up. Farmers in Alberta raised plantings by 3.2pc to 3.28Mha, with a swing to durum the big driver, while the wheat allocation of 1.34Mha in Manitoba was 1.9pc higher year on year.

On the wheat production front, the June 20 crop outlook suggested an average wheat yield of 3.18 t/ha was currently achievable for the 2025 harvest, compared to 3.28t/ha and 3.08t/ha for the previous two seasons. Assuming a harvested area of 10.75Mha, output from this year is likely to be 34.2Mt. This would represent a decline of 2.2pc compared to the 2024 harvest of 34.96Mt but 3.8pc more than the 32.95Mt reaped in 2023.

Barley loses, oats gain favour

Barley continues to lose favour among Canada’s farmers, with the planted area at 2.48Mha in 2025 falling for the fourth consecutive year. This is down from 2.59Mha in 2024, 2.97Mha in 2023, and the recent peak of 3.37Mha in 2021. Alberta led the way, down 5.7pc to 1.34Mha, followed by Saskatchewan which was 2.6pc lower at 930,000ha.

Historically, Canadian farmers usually harvest around 92pc of the planted area each season. Applying that ratio to the principal crop outlook yield estimate of 3.48t/ha puts this season’s production estimate at 7.94Mt, down from 8.14Mt last harvest and 8.91Mt the harvest prior.

Contrary to barley, oats appear to be regaining favour among the nation’s farmers, with plantings rising for the second consecutive year after falling dramatically in 2023. According to the survey, the seeded area increased 3.3pc to 1.21Mha this year, 18.2pc higher than in 2023 but 23.9pc lower than in 2022. Using a harvested area of 1Mha and a yield of 3.38t/ha, this season’s output is estimated at 3.38Mt.

Dry peas, lentils strong increase

Lentils and dry peas are the two main pulse crops in Canada each season, with significant increases reported for both in the farmer survey results. The lentil allocation has risen by 4pc in 2025 to 1.77Mha, which follows a 14.8pc increase last year. The dry pea area has reportedly increased by 9.1pc to 1.38Mha. Lentil and dry pea production are estimated at 2.43Mt and 3Mt respectively.

In the row-crop arena, soybean area is forecast to increase by 0.5pc to 2.32Mha, resulting in production of 7.38Mt on an assumed a yield of 3.18t/ha. The corn area is expected to be 2.2pc above the 2024 level at 1.51Mha, with an estimated yield of 10.1t/ha generating potential output of 14.95Mt from the autumn harvest.