Peter McMeekin this week writes about the recent barley sale to Saudi Arabia, the major adjustment China made to its multi-year corn crop numbers and salutes the end of WWI.
Australia’s production and export figures have been revised down in the latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released overnight, which also details increased stocks and production for China as its trade stoush with the US continues.
Peter McMeekin this week takes readers on a global journey of crops, markets, weather and politics, including his view on how tweets moved markets amid hope of improved soybean trade from the US to China.
The USDA has cut its forecast for Australian wheat production to 18.5 million tonnes, down 1.5Mt from its previous estimate, in its October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report released overnight.
Australian barley’s dominant position in the Chinese market is set to continue and Australia’s substantial share of the Chinese wheat market also remains strong, although facing competition from North American suppliers.
Australia exported 46,399 tonnes of canola in July to mark the rundown in old-crop supplies, as the market shifts focus to the fate of the weather-affected new-crop.
The value of Australia’s farm production is forecast to remain relatively unchanged at $60 billion in 2018–19, well above the 10-year average of $55b, despite very dry conditions in some places, according to ABARES’ latest quarterly report released today.
Saudi Arabia’s latest tender results confirm strength in the global barley market, which is being impacted by a heat-affected harvest in northern Europe, and drought conditions over much of eastern Australia.
Peter McMeekin this week says shrinking barley crops among most major producers means global rationing will be inevitable, though difficult because a large proportion of world demand is quite inelastic.
Australia shipped a total of 512,181t tonnes of barley and sorghum to China in June, 78 per cent of the 659,656t shipped to all destinations, according to the latest figures out from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.