Estimates for Australia’s 2018/19 wheat exports and production have been clipped further in the USDA’s December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released overnight.
Australia’s production and export figures have been revised down in the latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released overnight, which also details increased stocks and production for China as its trade stoush with the US continues.
Global cotton production for 2018/19 is forecast to be 119.4 million bales (Mb), down 3.5 per cent from the previous season, but up from the February 2018 forecast of 117Mb, according to the latest USDA outlook.
Peter McMeekin this week comments on the disparity between USDA optimistic predictions of Australia’s winter crop and the expectations of market participants as frost damaged crops across Australia and drought hit winter yield prospects in most of the Murray Darling Basin.
The USDA has cut its forecast for Australian wheat production to 18.5 million tonnes, down 1.5Mt from its previous estimate, in its October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report released overnight.
Peter McMeekin this week foreshadows continued upward pressure on world wheat prices as Middle East and North Africa buyers continue to book business at higher levels. Haymakers in Australia taking their cue from the drought-driven hay price, while SA/Vic crop potential gets cut.
Record yields are on the cards for the US summer crops of corn and soybeans. Corn recently began an earlier-than-usual harvest in the US mid-west.
The USDA has estimated Australia’s coming wheat crop at 22 million tonnes, in line with ABARES’ most recent projection, but around 3Mt above industry expectations.
The USDA and ABARES released updates for their relevant papers on crop production this week, sparking up markets as the July CBOT wheat contract traded at US52c/bu weekly range (A$27/t) and ended closing lower at 499.50c/bu.
Brazil displaced the US as the world’s biggest soybean exporter in 2013/14, and is banking the windfall of not only big crops but also dramatically depreciating currency to maintain its top ranking among world soybean exporters, says USDA.