Rain and high grain-moisture levels have stopped harvest on many farms in southern Qld and northern NSW, including the Jackson family’s operation south-east of Moree. Photo: The Jackson Brothers

AUSTRALIA has the potential to harvest record barley and canola crops after a stellar growing season across southern Australia, where headers are starting to roll.

In collating latest estimates from ABARES, Bendigo Bank Agribusiness, Lachstock Consulting, Rabobank and the USDA, Grain Central has found four of the five latest barley figures sit above 16.3 million tonnes (Mt).

That was ABARES’ estimate for the record barley crop set last harvest, and the biggest estimate for the crop now being harvested has come from the USDA on 17.1Mt.

A late break and limited in-crop rain has reduced Queensland and northern New South Wales wheat area and production, which means the national crop seen at around 31Mt is not expected to crack the top five.

Canola, however, could break the record set during the 2022-23 of up to 7.6Mt, with four of five estimates now on 7.8Mt or more.

Harvest is now under way in all mainland states bar Victoria, where many growers are expecting bumper yields.

In Rabobank’s latest Australian Winter Crop Forecast released last week, lead author and RaboResearch senior grains and oilseeds analyst Vitor Pistoia said numbers reflect “sharply contrasting seasonal conditions”.

“Production is more concentrated in southern and western regions of the country this year,” Mr Pistoia said.

“Below-average rainfall across the northern east coast is expected to reduce output in Queensland and New South Wales.

“By contrast though, favourable moisture levels and strong yields are supporting production increases in South Australia and Victoria.

Overall, Mr Pistoia said, declines in grain and oilseed production this year on the eastern seaboard – along with the nation’s overall lower wheat volumes – had failed to outweigh strong crops in SA and Vic.

Table 1: Estimates in million tonnes from ABARES Sep 1, Bendigo Bank Agribusiness Sep 25, Lachstock Consulting (Oct 14 wheat,  Sep 10 barley, Oct 15 canola), Rabobank Oct 13, and USDA Oct 9.

Here is a summary of conditions by state:

Queensland

Rabobank’s forecast says the biggest production declines in this year’s winter crops were being seen in Queensland, with volumes predicted to be down 47.6 percent on last season to 2.03Mt.

Harvest in Central Qld is almost over, and is well advanced in southern Qld, where rain is delaying progress in some areas.

Almost all of southern Qld’s barley and most of its wheat goes into the local feed market, so if weather damage affects a portion of the crop, it will be absorbed in rations for feedlots, piggeries and poultry operations.

New South Wales

Rabobank has detailed a “wide production divide” seen between the state’s north and south, with good growing-season rainfall having supported crop prospects across the eastern Riverina and Murray regions.

Bourke Harvesting principal Matthew Bourke is based in Victoria and has two crews in NSW for harvest.

A three-header crew is on standby at Bullarah, west of Moree, to harvest faba beans, barley, wheat, and chickpeas, and was due to kick off the company’s 2026 run.

“We envisaged starting 10 days ago, and right as we wanted to start, it started raining, and it’s been raining off and on ever since,” Mr Bourke said.

In the week to 9am today, Moree has had 49mm of rain, Mungindi 41mm, Warialda 34mm, and Wee Waa 70mm.

Mr Bourke said high grain moisture rather than ground access is holding up Bourke Harvesting’s start in northern NSW.

“Getting moisture in the grain down to a harvestable level is the issue.”

With rain on the forecast into next week, the resumption of harvest in northern NSW is expected to be slow.

Bourke Harvesting has a second crew operating in the Griffith-Hillston district of south-west NSW, where yields are below average, and conditions are dry.

“Their yields are pretty disappointing given the season.”

Victoria

Rabobank said Victoria’s total winter-crop production is forecast to be up 11.2pc from last year to 11.21Mt.

At Culla in Vic’s southern Wimmera, Kurra-Wirra cropping manager Bridget Close inspects a crop of LRPB Beaufort feed wheat. Photo: Matthew Sparke

Mr Pistoia said high yields were driving a “top tier” crop in the state, poised to rank alongside the largest in recent years.

Horsham-based AgVantage Agronomy director Tim Pohlner said Wimmera and southern Mallee crops look “absolutely exceptional at the moment.”

“We’ve had a near-perfect season,” Mr Pohlner said.

Harvest in Vic is expected to start next week, and Mr Pohlner said cereal yields are not expected to show a yield penalty through under-fertilising, despite the expense of urea early in the growing season.

“A lot of farmers still got on the nitrogen that they would have liked to.”

He said “a couple of lean years” in some districts means some reserves in the soil will have boosted nitrogen-use efficiency.

Mr Pohlner said some cereal crops are on track to yield more than 6t/ha, and 5t/ha crops will be “fairly common”, with barley the stand-out.

South Australia

Rabobank’s Mr Pistoia said it has been a “season for the record books” for SA, where the 2026-27 crop could reach an all-time high, supported by the largest planted area on record and strong yields.

His summation puts the state’s total winter crop at 12.44Mt, up 43.7pc on last season, above the latest estimate from Primary Industries and Regions SA’s latest report, which puts the crop at 11.6Mt, behind only the 12.8Mt harvested in 2022-23.

“Favourable growing-season rainfall lifted subsoil moisture above average and supported strong crop development, with limited frost damage providing further benefit,” Mr Pistoia said in the Rabo report.

Agronomy principal Michelle Bammann from Ground Up Agronomy at Clare in SA’s Mid North said a number of Eyre Pensinsula growers have started harvesting as far south as Cleve and Rudall.

In the Mid North, Ms Bammann said most growers were 2-4 weeks away from starting harvest, but some early pockets like Baroota have kicked off.

Cereals generally are looking at above-average yields.

“Barley will definitely be above average, wheat in earlier areas will be above average, and wheat in the later areas will be average to slightly above,” Ms Bammann said.

“I’m not sure about canola.”

Ms Bammann does not expect cereals to express a yield penalty due to underfeeding, despite the eye-watering expense of urea early in the season, as they had booked tonnes ahead of the Strait of Hormuz closure, which jacked up prices.

Western Australia

Rabobank’s report makes WA the source of 59pc of Australia’s 2026-27 canola production, supported by a 41pc year-on-year increase in area planted to canola in the state.

WA’s overall winter-crop production is expected to be well down on last year’s record.

The Grain Industry Association of WA October crop report was released on Friday, and has lifted estimates for wheat and barley from those issued in September, but cut the canola figure.

As detailed in GIWA’s report, harvest is in progress in the Geraldton and Esperance port zones.

“Early harvest grain yield results coming in from Geraldton and Esperance are very good, although skewed as growers hop into the best paddocks first,” GIWA report author Michael Lamond said in the organisation’s October report.

“Even so, Esperance is going to have near record tonnages and the better areas and soil types in the Geraldton port zone are going to be very good.

“The central regions of the Kwinana port zone are going to be near record yields and the lower-rainfall regions of the Kwinana East port zone are also going to be very good.

“The western areas of the Albany port zone are going to be solid again, as are the south coastal regions.”

Source: ABARES, Bendigo Bank Agribusiness, Lachstock Consulting, Rabobank, USDA, GIWA