Cropping

ABARES lifts national wheat, barley, canola forecasts

Liz Wells, September 8, 2020

A crop of Spartacus barley growing near the Victoria-NSW border. Photo: Matt Witney, Dodgshun Medlin

ABARES has lifted its new-crop estimate for wheat, barley and canola to 28.9 million tonnes (Mt), 11.2Mt and 3.4Mt respectively in its Australian crop report – September 2020 released today.

Australia’s national commodity forecaster said the increases have come on the back of mostly favourable seasonal growing conditions for the winter crop in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia.

On wheat, that represents on increase of 8 per cent from 26.7Mt forecast in ABARES previous crop report issued in June with initial production and area estimates, while barley is up 6pc from 10.6Mt, and canola is up 5pc from 3.2Mt.

This has more than offset cuts to production in Queensland and Tasmania, and unchanged estimates in South Australia.

Harvesting of new-crop wheat wheat and barley has started in small amounts in Queensland, and will gather pace next month when the harvest gets going in other states.

ABARES wheat number sits above the most recent forecasts released by Lachstock Consulting on 28.2Mt and Australian Crop Forecasters (ACF) on 27.9Mt, both of which exclude the Tasmanian crop in their national figures.

Lachstock is sitting on 9.9Mt for barley and 3Mt for canola, while ACF is at 10Mt and 3.6Mt.

Tables below refer to crops planted in the year to 31 March.

WHEAT 5yr avg to 2019-20 2019-20 2020-21 Jun estimate 2020-21 Sep estimate
Qld 885,000 420,000 1,400,000 1,103,000
NSW 5,072,000 2,090,000 8,288,000 10,260,000
Vic 3,208,000 3,600,000 3,831,000 4,096,000
Tas 49,000 55,000 55,000 51,000
SA 4,018,000 3,200,000 4,500,000 4,500,000
WA 8,327,000 5,800,000 8,600,000 8,900,000
TOTAL TONNES 21,559,000 15,165,000 26,674,000 28,910,000

Table 1: Tonnes of wheat produced in all Australian states, including initial and revised new-crop estimates. Source: ABARES

WHEAT 5yr avg to 2019-20  2019-20 2020-21 Jun estimate 2020-21 Sep estimate
Qld 538,000 400,000 900,000 750,000
NSW 2,651,000 1,900,000 3,700,000 3,800,000
Vic 1,419,000 1,450,000 1,575,000 1,600,000
Tas 9,000 10,000 10,000 10,000
SA 1,939,000 1,950,000 2,050,000 2,075,000
WA 4,444,000 4,500,000 4,750,000 4,750,000
TOTAL HECTARES 11,000,000 10,210,000 12,985,000 12,985,000

Table 2: Hectares planted to wheat in all Australian states, including initial and revised new-crop estimates. Source: ABARES

BARLEY 5yr avg to 2019-20 2019-20 2020-21 Jun estimate 2020-21 Sep estimate
Qld 238,000 60,000 280,000 270,000
NSW 1,654,000 696,000 2,034,000 2,518,000
Vic 2,027,000 2,500,000 2,213,000 2,349,000
Tas 28,000 45,000 32,000 30,000
SA 2,009,000 1,850,000 2,100,000 2,100,000
WA 3,958,000 3,850,000 3,900,000 3,950,000
TOTAL TONNES 9,914,000 9,001,000 10,559,000 11,217,000

Table 3: Tonnes of barley produced in all Australian states, including initial and revised new-crop estimates. Source: ABARES

BARLEY 5yr avg to 2019-20 2019-20 2020-21 Jun estimate 2020-21 Sep estimate
Qld 107,000 45,000 140,000 135,000
NSW 807,000 580,000 900,000 950,000
Vic 869,000 820,000 870,000 870,000
Tas 7,000 10,000 7,000 7,000
SA 869,000 845,000 840,000 840,000
WA 1,651,000 1,750,000 1,600,000 1,600,000
TOTAL HECTARES 4,310,000 4,050,000 4,357,000 4,402,000

Table 4: Hectares planted to barley in all Australian states, including initial and revised new-crop estimates. Source: ABARES

CANOLA 5yr avg to 2019-20 2019-20 2020-21 Jun estimate 2020-21 Sep estimate
Qld 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
NSW 713,000 225,000 803,000 869,000
Vic 604,000 650,000 712,000 765,000
Tas 3,000 3,000 2,000 2,000
SA 296,000 300,000 330,000 330,000
WA 1,519,000 1,150,000 1,400,000 1,450,000
TOTAL TONNES 3,136,000 2,329,000 3,248,000 3,417,000

Table 5: Tonnes of canola produced in all Australian states, including initial and revised new-crop estimates. Source: ABARES

CANOLA 5yr avg to 2019-20 2019-20 2020-21 estimate 2020-21 estimate
Qld 1,000 2,000 2,000 2,000
NSW 574,000 250,000 550,000 550,000
Vic 389,000 385,000 450,000 450,000
Tas 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
SA 199,000 220,000 225,000 225,000
WA 1,211,000 950,000 1,150,000 1,150,000
TOTAL HECTARES 2,375,000 1,808,000 2,378,000 2,378,000

Table 6: Hectares planted to canola in all Australian states, including initial and revised new-crop estimates. Source: ABARES

 

 

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