TRADE bids for new-crop delivered late 2017 are starting to appear on traders’ apps and websites, showing strong prices now for new crop canola, cereal prices with firming potential.
Climate forecasts are pointing to a drier Australian season in 2017, and world wheat trade has sustained firmer values early in 2017, indicating that commodity may have seen its price lows for the current cycle.
Canola new crop prices today are the bright spot.
Returns to growers for winter cereals and oilseeds will stand, as always, to benefit from clever pricing and marketing by trading organisations using futures, basis and other instruments to capture high points in the market.
Snapshot of values – all prices quoted are track bids as of February 21, 2017:
The major world importers of rapeseed and canola, EU and Canada, have potential to substantially increase intake from the crops harvesting in their 2017 summer-autumn.
Profarmer chief analyst, Hannah Janson said canola prices are looking attractive, but have some risk attached.
“Canola is an example this year where strong prices now showing for new crop have potential for downside from factors such as world supply — northern hemisphere soybeans, rapeseed, canola — or demand risks such as bird flu.”
Melbourne buyers CBH, Emerald, GrainCorp and Wilmar were bidding new-crop canola at $517-$514.
At Kwinana, new-crop was bid at $537-$540 by buyers ADM, Bunge and CBH.
One of Australia’s specialty lines of wheat, ANW1, noodle wheat had early bidding for new crop, possibly to encourage growers to consider planting suitable varieties, while the utility grade Australian Premium White (APW1) was also bid.
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Meanwhile wheat futures markets experience the ebb and flow of weather worries from freezing and early thawing of crops between Russia and the US as they emerge from the potential of winterkill.
Glencore’s Kwinana bids were $261 for ANW1 noodle wheat, and $251 for APW1.
In Melbourne, APW1 was bid at $236 and $237 by ADM, GrainCorp and Robinson.
Desi chickpeas trade in a unique market, responding to conditions in the sub-continent which last year favoured Australian product.
This year is shaping up to be different as local crop in India rebalances supply.
GrainCorp was bidding $670 Brisbane and $625 Newcastle for new-crop chickpeas.
This compared with current-crop bids from Glencore for the two ports yesterday at $840 and $800 respectively.
Marketers of new-crop Australian barley have the benefit of a strongly contestable multi-origin and multi-destination trade.
Kwinana F1 feed barley was bid at $195 and $196 by CBH and Bunge.
In Melbourne, Emerald’s bid for F1 was $178.