IKON forecasts total wheat, barley, canola at 48.1Mt

Grain Central, September 1, 2023

Recent storms have brought very patchy rain to thirsty crops including canola in NSW. Photo: Stephen Gibson, Carroll

AUSTRALIA’S three major winter crops are expected to yield 48.1 million tonnes (Mt), well down on last year’s record 65Mt, but still 3 per cent above the five-year average, according to the latest production forecast from IKON Commodities.

Ahead of ABARES releasing its quarterly Australian Crop Report on Tuesday, IKON has forecast wheat production at 30.4Mt, down 4pc from its previous estimate, but well up on ABARES’ most recent estimates released in June of 26.2Mt.

IKON has its estimate for new-crop barley at 12Mt, 500,000t below the standing ABARES estimate.

On canola, IKON has forecast production at 5.7Mt, 800,000t above ABARES’ June estimate of 4.9Mt.

In its commentary tied to the figures released yesterday, IKON Commodities said the production outlook continues to diverge between dry conditions in Western Australia’s northern regions, Queensland and northern New South Wales against the wetter southern regions.

“Growing season rainfall for regions many southern growing regions stretching from WA to NSW have fortunately received average or above average rainfall,” the report said.

“The coming weeks will be a defining period for grain production across Australia with rainfall needed to prevent further declines in crop prospects.”

“Australian grain prices have been supported with expectations of similar yield reductions in the upcoming ABARES crop report.

“Buying interest has recently increased from both domestic and export markets.”

Source: IKON Commodities


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