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ABARES puts Australian wheat crop at record 33.3Mt

Grain Central, February 16, 2021

Yields in Western Australia have come in above earlier expectations to provide the major lift to ABARES forecasts in its February 2020 Australian crop report. Photo: Paul Carmody

AUSTRALIA’s national commodity forecaster has lifted its estimates for current-crop wheat, barley and canola in its latest Australian crop report to include the biggest wheat crop on record.

Harvesting of all three crops is now over in all but a few very late crops, with wheat now forecast to produce 33.3 million tonnes (Mt), 5 per cent higher than the previous record of 31.8Mt set in 2016-17, and up 7 per cent from the previous estimate issued in December.

On wheat, all area estimates are unchanged, and the lift in production has come largely from higher-than-expected yields in Western Australia and New South Wales.

The national forecast for barley production at 13.1Mt is up 9pc from 12Mt forecast in December, but is below the national record set in 2016-17 of 13.5Mt.

On barley, the South Australian area estimate has risen 20,000 hectares, but the bulk of the production rise has come from increased yields in NSW, SA and Victoria, with WA again the surprise packet.

Increases for Victorian and WA production alone have lifted the national forecast for canola by 9pc to 4.1Mt, again below the record set in 2016-17 of 4.3Mt.

WHEAT 5yr avg to 2019-20 2019-20 2020-21 Dec estimate 2020-21 Feb estimate
Qld 885,000 420,000 1,103,000 1,103,000
NSW 5,072,000 2,090,000 12,236,000 13,110,000
Vic 3,208,000 3,600,000 4,720,000 4,768,000
Tas 49,000 55,000 56,000 56,000
SA 4,018,000 3,200,000 4,900,000 4,800,000
WA 8,327,000 5,800,000 8,150,000 9,500,000
TOTAL TONNES 21,559,000 15,165,000 31,165,000 33,337,000

Table 1: Tonnes of wheat produced in all Australian states. Source: ABARES

WHEAT 5yr avg to 2019-20  2019-20 2020-21 Dec estimate 2020-21 Feb estimate
Qld 538,000 400,000 750,000 750,000
NSW 2,651,000 1,900,000 3,800,000 3,800,000
Vic 1,419,000 1,450,000 1,600,000 1,600,000
Tas 9,000 10,000 10,000 10,000
SA 1,939,000 1,950,000 2,075,000 2,075,000
WA 4,444,000 4,500,000 4,750,000 4,750,000
TOTAL HECTARES 11,000,000 10,210,000 12,985,000 12,985,000

Table 2: Hectares planted to wheat in all Australian states. Source: ABARES

BARLEY 5yr avg to 2019-20 2019-20 2020-21 Dec estimate 2020-21 Feb estimate
Qld 238,000 60,000 240,000 240,000
NSW 1,654,000 696,000 3,040,000 3,230,000
Vic 2,027,000 2,500,000 2,741,000 2,784,000
Tas 28,000 45,000 39,000 39,000
SA 2,009,000 1,850,000 2,300,000 2,400,000
WA 3,958,000 3,850,000 3,600,000 4,400,000
TOTAL TONNES 9,914,000 9,001,000 11,960,000 13,093,000

Table 3: Tonnes of barley produced in all Australian states. Source: ABARES

BARLEY 5yr avg to 2019-20 2019-20 2020-21 Dec estimate 2020-21 Feb estimate
Qld 107,000 45,000 135,000 135,000
NSW 807,000 580,000 950,000 950,000
Vic 869,000 820,000 870,000 870,000
Tas 7,000 10,000 7,000 7,000
SA 869,000 845,000 840,000 860,000
WA 1,651,000 1,750,000 1,600,000 1,600,000
TOTAL HECTARES 4,310,000 4,050,000 4,402,000 4,422,000

Table 4: Hectares planted to barley in all Australian states. Source: ABARES

CANOLA 5yr avg to 2019-20 2019-20 2020-21 Dec estimate 2020-21 Feb estimate
Qld 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
NSW 713,000 225,000 1,073,000 1,073,000
Vic 604,000 650,000 855,000 950,000
Tas 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000
SA 296,000 300,000 375,000 375,000
WA 1,519,000 1,150,000 1,400,000 1,650,000
TOTAL TONNES 3,136,000 2,329,000 3,707,000 4,052,000

Table 5: Tonnes of canola produced in all Australian states. Source: ABARES

CANOLA 5yr avg to 2019-20 2019-20 2020-21 Dec estimate 2020-21 Feb estimate
Qld 1,000 2,000 2,000 2,000
NSW 574,000 250,000 550,000 550,000
Vic 389,000 385,000 450,000 450,000
Tas 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
SA 199,000 220,000 225,000 225,000
WA 1,211,000 950,000 1,150,000 1,150,000
TOTAL HECTARES 2,375,000 1,808,000 2,378,000 2,378,000

Table 6: Hectares planted to canola in all Australian states. Source: ABARES

 

 

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