Markets

ABARES lifts national wheat, barley, canola forecasts

Grain Central, December 1, 2020

Harvesting canola at Northampton in WA’s Geraldton zone. Photo: Amery Drage

AUSTRALIA’s national commodity forecaster has lifted its estimates for new-crop wheat, barley and canola in its latest Australian Crop Report on the back of late rain in the growing season for south-eastern Australia.

Tempering the lift has been a tough finish to the Western Australian season, where production estimates have been cut for all three of Australia’s main winter crops.

Harvesting of all three crops is now roughly half on the mainland, with wheat now forecast to produce 31.2 million tonnes (Mt), barley 12Mt and canola 3.7Mt (tables 1, 3 and 5).

On wheat, that represents on increase of 8 per cent from the 28.9Mt forecast in ABARES previous crop report issued in September, while barley is up 7pc from 11.2Mt, and canola is up 8pc from 3.4Mt.

Following are ABARES tonnage and area estimates by state for Australia’s three largest winter crops:

WHEAT tonnes 5yr avg to 2019-20 2019-20 2020-21 Sep estimate 2020-21 Dec estimate
Qld 885,000 420,000 1,103,000 1,103,000
NSW 5,072,000 2,090,000 10,260,000 12,236,000
Vic 3,208,000 3,600,000 4,096,000 4,720,000
Tas 49,000 55,000 51,000 56,000
SA 4,018,000 3,200,000 4,500,000 4,900,000
WA 8,327,000 5,800,000 8,900,000 8,150,000
TOTAL TONNES 21,559,000 15,165,000 28,910,000 31,165,000

Table 1: Tonnes of wheat produced in all Australian states. Source: ABARES

WHEAT area 5yr avg to 2019-20  2019-20 2020-21 Sep estimate 2020-21 Dec estimate
Qld 538,000 400,000 750,000 750,000
NSW 2,651,000 1,900,000 3,800,000 3,800,000
Vic 1,419,000 1,450,000 1,600,000 1,600,000
Tas 9,000 10,000 10,000 10,000
SA 1,939,000 1,950,000 2,075,000 2,075,000
WA 4,444,000 4,500,000 4,750,000 4,750,000
TOTAL HECTARES 11,000,000 10,210,000 12,985,000 12,985,000

Table 2: Hectares planted to wheat in all Australian states. Source: ABARES

BARLEY tonnes 5yr avg to 2019-20 2019-20 2020-21 Sep estimate 2020-21 Dec estimate
Qld 238,000 60,000 270,000 240,000
NSW 1,654,000 696,000 2,518,000 3,040,000
Vic 2,027,000 2,500,000 2,349,000 2,741,000
Tas 28,000 45,000 30,000 39,000
SA 2,009,000 1,850,000 2,100,000 2,300,000
WA 3,958,000 3,850,000 3,950,000 3,600,000
TOTAL TONNES 9,914,000 9,001,000 11,217,000 11,960,000

Table 3: Tonnes of barley produced in all Australian states. Source: ABARES

BARLEY area 5yr avg to 2019-20 2019-20 2020-21 Sep estimate 2020-21 Dec estimate
Qld 107,000 45,000 135,000 135,000
NSW 807,000 580,000 950,000 950,000
Vic 869,000 820,000 870,000 870,000
Tas 7,000 10,000 7,000 7,000
SA 869,000 845,000 840,000 840,000
WA 1,651,000 1,750,000 1,600,000 1,600,000
TOTAL HECTARES 4,310,000 4,050,000 4,402,000 4,402,000

Table 4: Hectares planted to barley in all Australian states. Source: ABARES

CANOLA tonnes 5yr avg to 2019-20 2019-20 2020-21 Sep estimate 2020-21 Dec estimate
Qld 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
NSW 713,000 225,000 869,000 1,073,000
Vic 604,000 650,000 765,000 855,000
Tas 3,000 3,000 2,000 3,000
SA 296,000 300,000 330,000 375,000
WA 1,519,000 1,150,000 1,450,000 1,400,000
TOTAL TONNES 3,136,000 2,329,000 3,417,000 3,707,000

Table 5: Tonnes of canola produced in all Australian states. Source: ABARES

CANOLA area 5yr avg to 2019-20 2019-20 2020-21 Sep estimate 2020-21 Dec estimate
Qld 1,000 2,000 2,000 2,000
NSW 574,000 250,000 550,000 550,000
Vic 389,000 385,000 450,000 450,000
Tas 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
SA 199,000 220,000 225,000 225,000
WA 1,211,000 950,000 1,150,000 1,150,000
TOTAL HECTARES 2,375,000 1,808,000 2,378,000 2,378,000

Table 6: Hectares planted to canola in all Australian states. Source: ABARES

Source: ABARES

 

 

 

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