Harvesting winter cereals in Bulgaria in July. Photo: Interagri

FAVOURABLE weather across much of Bulgaria in the latter stages of this season’s winter crop development, followed by hot and dry harvest conditions, has resulted in higher wheat and barley production than initially expected, but the quality of the grain is not quite as good as last year’s excellent crop.

Bulgaria’s Ministry of Agriculture recently reported that the 2025-26 winter crop harvest had been completed, with wheat production coming in at 7.3 million tonnes (Mt). This represents an 8.5 percent increase in output compared to 2024, on the back of a 6.2pc increase in the harvested area to 1.26 million hectares (Mha), which was compounded by a 2.3pc increase in the average yield to 5.8t/ha.

That matches the European Commission’s output forecast, with its yield of 5.77t/ha almost 11pc above the five-year average of 5.2t/ha and 14.9pc above the 10-year average of 5.04t/ha. However, some private forecasters reportedly have the crop as high as 7.5Mt, while average yield estimates are as high as 6.4t/ha.

Big year for wheat, barley

While no official quality data has been released as yet, private analysts are expecting the milling wheat share to be in the 55-60pc range, down from the previous harvest when 73pc of the crop met milling industry standards, but still significantly higher than the 2003 harvest when only 48.7pc made the grade.

Bulgaria’s wheat exports in the 2024-25 marketing year (July-June) set a new record of just over 6Mt, of which 4.6Mt, or 76.6pc, was shipped to destinations outside the European Union via its Black Sea ports of Varna and Burgas. Trade data for the nine months to the end of March put wheat exports at 5.1Mt. The biggest destination was Algeria with 2.11Mt, or 41.4pc of the program, followed by Egypt with 500,000t. Adding 360,000t to Morocco and 130,000t to Tunisia means North African importers accounted for 3.1Mt, or 58.8pc of the export task completed by March 30.

Third on the list was Romania with 480,000t, a portion of which would most likely have then been re-exported out of its own Black Sea port of Constanta. Greece and Spain were the other EU destinations of note. Asian importers were not big buyers from Bulgaria, with Indonesia and Thailand on 150,000t and 140,000t respectively the only two in the top 10. Bulgaria’s wheat carryout declined to just 100,000t in 2024-25 on the back of the record export season.

Final 2025-26 barley production came in at 1.1Mt according to the country’s Ministry of Agriculture. That equates to a harvest-on-harvest increase of 7.7pc, with the harvested area 2.7pc higher at just under 200,000ha and the average yield increasing by 4.8pc to 5.68t/ha. Again, the European Commission is on the same page with regards to total production, but is using a slightly higher yield of 5.71t/ha, which is 15.1pc above the five-year average and 21.5pc above the 10-year average.

Barely exports in the 2024-25 marketing year totalled 750,000t, with 360,000t, or 48pc, going to non-EU countries. The top three destinations in the first nine months of 2024-25 were Spain, Romania and Saudi Arabia, with 123,000t, 110,000t and 103,000t respectively. Algeria, Greece, Portugal, Morocco and Tunisia were the next five, all importing less than 100,000t. North African demand totalled 210,000t, or 31pc of 680,000t of shipments in the first three quarters of the marketing season.

Corn feels the heat

While the hot and dry weather through June, July and August was great for the winter crop harvest, it baked the corn crop. In late July and early August, Bulgaria endured a 25-day period where the maximum daily temperature did not fall below 35 degrees Celsius. The national meteorological bureau reported that Bulgaria’s summer was one of the hottest and driest since 1950, with many regions experiencing acute soil and atmospheric drought.

A lack of rainfall, especially in July and August, accompanied the heatwave conditions, rapidly sapping soil-moisture reserves. The severe water deficit combined with heat stress during flowering and early grain fill stages substantially reduced the accumulation of corn biomass, accelerated crop development and reduced pollination efficiency.

This is the fourth consecutive season of extreme summer weather conditions. While early-season expectations were optimistic, Bulgarian farmers did reduce their exposure to corn in the current crop cycle by decreasing the planted area from 510,000ha to 420,000ha , following the run of arid summers and poor crops.

The Ministry of Agriculture is holding on to quite a hopeful corn production estimate of 2Mt, but private industry estimates vary from 850,000t to 1.7Mt based on yield estimates that range from just over 2t/ha up to 4t/ha. The European Commission’s current yield projection is 3.24t/ha, 30.6pc below the five-year average, but 2.5pc higher than the 2024 harvest.

Corn exports in the 2024-25 marketing year (September to August) were extremely slow due to low production and a poor quality harvest last year. As of mid-August, the Ministry of Agriculture reported corn exports at just under 250,000t compared to almost 700,000t for the same period last season. The primary destination is Greece, followed by Türkiye and Romania. Conversely, imports of corn for the same period have increased from 26,000t in 2023-24 to 462,000t this season.

Sunflower area above average

Sunflower seed is the main oilseed crop in Bulgaria each season, with the planted area for 2025-26 reported to be a tad less than 1Mha, an increase of 7.5pc compared to 2024-25, and 8.3pc above the five-year average. The sunflower plant’s resilience to extreme summer heat led to early-season harvest expectations as high as 2Mt compared to the 1.5Mt reaped from the 2024 harvest. However, dire soil-moisture deficits took the gloss off the crop, with the European Commission winding its production forecast back to 1.65Mt, 10.3pc below the five-year average, with the yield of 1.75t/ha coming in 17.1pc below the five-year average.