CHINA’S winter-crop harvest reportedly topped 150 million tonnes (Mt) for the first time this year, while the autumn harvest, which accounts for around three-quarters of the nation’s annual grain output, is in full swing with the Asian powerhouse on track for another bumper year.

The National Bureau of Statistics recorded nationwide output from the summer harvest at 150.75Mt, around 0.7 percent, or 1Mt higher than last year. The bureau reported that a total of 26.53 million hectares (Mha) were planted to winter crops, just 0.2pc lower than the 2025-26 season.

The average yield across all the harvested crops came in at 5.68t/ha, an increase of 0.8pc compared to the 2025 harvest.

Winter crops in China include cereals, beans and tubers harvested over the summer months. Among them, the main cereals include wheat, barley, oats and buckwheat; beans primarily include broad beans and peas; while the summer tuber harvest is predominantly made up of potatoes and sweet potatoes.

Wheat crop up on last year

This year’s wheat harvest reportedly totalled 138.95Mt, an increase of 800,000t, or 0.6pc, compared to the 2025 campaign. The planted area of 23Mha fell 0.3pc from last season, while the average wheat yield rose by 0.9pc to 6.04t/ha.

Official government figures are slightly lower than those of the United States Department of Agriculture’s Beijing-based agricultural attaché, which pegs the total wheat crop at 141Mt from a harvested area of 23.6Mha and an average yield of 5.97t/ha.

The USDA is expecting domestic wheat demand to remain stable at 150Mt, with stockfeed consumption at 33Mt and food, seed and industrial (FSI) use at 117Mt. Imports are pegged at 6Mt in the current marketing year, with ending stocks forecast to be 4Mt lower than in 2025-26 at 118Mt.

Flour demand is relatively weak, with consumption growth slowing, while excess milling capacity and weak margins have reduced mill operating rates, limiting demand for high-quality wheat. Feed use remains the strongest component of the wheat balance sheet. Substitution in feed rations depends primarily on the wheat–corn price spread. Rain during this year’s harvest increased the proportion of low test-weight and high screenings wheat entering the feed market at discounted prices relative to old-crop corn values.

According to Agriculture and Rural Affairs Minister Zhang Zhu, the early rice crop, also harvested in summer, remained above 28Mt for the sixth consecutive years, despite the impact of heavy rain and typhoons. Strong government price support, stable planting intentions, and continued efforts to improve yields helped offset weather-related losses, resulting in a harvest of 28.3Mt.

The autumn grain harvest had exceeded 70pc as of October 15, according to a Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs agricultural dispatch. The ministry reported over 80pc completed in the Huang-Huai-Hai and Northwest regions, more than 60pc in north-east China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and around 40pc in South China.

Corn prices under pressure

Corn is the primary autumn-harvested crop in China, followed by soybeans and the middle and late-season rice crops. Overall progress is slightly ahead of the long-term average, with the outlook favourable for a solid harvest result. The total planted area is thought to have remained stable or increased slightly from last year. However, corn, a major feed grain, has seen a notable increase in planted area, Zhang said.

China has experienced more flooding than drought this year, although the impacts have generally been more severe in localised areas. Overall, weather conditions have reportedly been favourable for agricultural production across much of the farming area in the 2026-27 season, but grain supply is expected to remain tightly balanced in the 2026-27 marketing year, with overall grain demand continuing to rise.

The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts corn production of 306Mt this season, up from 301.2Mt in 2025-26, with high temperatures late in the growing season capping yield potential. Temperatures recorded at 50 weather stations across several major corn-producing provinces matched or exceeded historical records over the six weeks to the end of August.

Domestic consumption is expected to be 322Mt in 2026-27, 1Mt higher than last season, with stockfeed demand at 240Mt, and FSI use at 82Mt. FAS forecasts corn imports of 6Mt in 2026-27, with a 10Mt drawdown in stocks across the season to close out the marketing year at 165Mt.

The corn market faces the strongest domestic price pressure from rising new-crop supplies, with grain gradually hitting the market in the northern and north-eastern regions. However, merchants and stockfeed manufacturers reportedly remain cautious, expecting further domestic price declines as the harvest moves south.

The ratio of corn in feed rations has also trended lower this year, down from 47pc in January to 29pc in August. Livestock farming losses are encouraging producers to use more competitively priced wheat, barley, and sorghum, further reducing corn’s share in feed rations. In addition, imported sorghum and barley stocks are building up at southern ports, reportedly approaching 2.4Mt last week, well above prior-year levels, while feed grain imports in the last quarter of the year are expected to be around 7Mt.

Despite the large pig population, poor profitability across the livestock sector is discouraging the accumulation of substantial feed grain stocks off the header. Stockfeed producers are also showing limited interest because of modest processing margins and plenty of low-quality, relatively cheap cereals available for feed rations.

China’s pig prices have plunged to their lowest level in nearly eight years, as the country struggles to deal with a persistent supply glut triggered by the spread of huge industrial farms and a drop in meat consumption. Losses in the sector have reportedly been running at as much as US$65 per head this year, prompting a widespread liquidation in the national sow herd. With the slaughter running at approximately 700M pigs annually, the sector is estimated to be bleeding around $3.8 billion per month.

The crisis can be traced back to the African Swine Fever in 2019, which saw the national hog herd fall by around two-thirds. In the aftermath, profits soared to more than $300/head, prompting producers and investors to rebuild aggressively, including high-rise confinement facilities and mega-farms. The resulting over-expansion flooded the market, keeping the sector unprofitable since 2021.